Funcas Europe


2023

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The global economy in times of polycrisis

2022 was characterised by uncertainty, economic and financial markets volatility, and most
importantly, an acceleration in the regime shift in which the global economy is immersed.
Although many questions remain unanswered, 2023 should shed some more light on
key future international economic trends, with the search for a new equilibrium in prices, economic policy and geopolitics the main variables to watch.

Artículo

Managing the risks of quantitative tightening in the euro area

Recent quantitative tightening decisions undertaken by the ECB are important to reduce surplus liquidity and improve the functioning of the monetary transmission mechanism in the euro area. Nevertheless, they pose important risks for commercial banks, central banks, government finances, and the ECB itself.

Artículo

La gestión de los riesgos del endurecimiento cuantitativo en la eurozona

Analiza los riesgos y oportunidades
que tendrá la reducción del balance del Eurosistema para
los bancos comerciales y los gobiernos de la eurozona.

Artículo

What to expect in the European economy in 2023

What to expect in Europe’s economy in 2023? We can’t think of a more pertinent question to restart our podcast series this season.

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Conjunctural indicators for the Eurozone in December 2022

The PMI Composite Index posted 47.3 in October 23-month low. Private sector business activity across the euro area fell at the sharpest pace since November 2020, extending the downturn into a fourth straight month.

Prensa

The Iberian energy price cap and its impact (staffettaonline.com)

Los precios energéticos ya producen efectos de segunda ronda que lastran las perspectivas.

2022

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Our most popular podcast content of 2022

It’s been quite a year for stock markets globally. The losses have been massive and financial actors are having to confront a highly uncertain environment.

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A year of change in financial markets

It’s been quite a year for stock markets globally. The losses have been massive and financial actors are having to confront a highly uncertain environment.

Evento

Perspectivas económicas para Europa y España

Artículo

The ECB´s normalisation strategy: Uncertainty and legacies

The ECB is facing an extraordinary situation in which it is unable to rely on an economic slowdown alone to curb inflation. Only with decisive and swift action on normalisation of both interest rates and its monetary policy toolkit, comprised of legacy long-term liquidity injections and asset purchases, can the ECB prove its determination to bring inflation back in line with official targets and anchor inflation expectations.

Artículo

TLTRO and bank liquidity in the new rate scenario

The ECB´s targeted longer-term refinancing operations, or TLTROs, were designed to be one of the key mechanisms to keep credit flowing through the banking system to the real economy during the crisis. Beyond the negative impact on banks´ earnings of recent changes to TLTRO terms in order to better align them with other monetary policy instruments, the European and Spanish banking systems have sufficient liquidity to handle the maturity or prepayment of their TLTRO funds, as well as to meet anticipated credit growth next year, thanks to their excess reserves, evolution of retail deposits and funds, and planned bond market issuance.

Artículo

La política monetaria del Banco Central Europeo frente a la crisis pandémica

Este artículo revisa las diferentes medidas de política monetaria adoptadas por la institución desde la irrupción de la pandemia y proporciona una explicación de su motivación, así como varios análisis de impacto del PEPP sobre la economía española y sobre el área del euro en su conjunto.

Artículo

TLTRO y liquidez bancaria en el nuevo escenario de tipos

En este artículo se analizan las opciones disponibles para esa reconducción y sus implicaciones para la liquidez bancaria.

Artículo

Nueva estrategia del BCE: el peso de la incertidumbre y del legado

El objetivo de este artículo es revisar dos aspectos de la política monetaria: la definición de la estrategia de normalización en un contexto “nada normal”, en el que la inflación se ha disparado, y la gestión del legado de la instrumentación de la larga etapa anterior –trece años— de posición acomodaticia, que tuvo que enfrentarse a dificultades de trasmisión a los mercados monetarios y de deuda pública relacionada con la crisis bancaria y la del euro.

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Key challenges for the new Italian government

On 22 October, Giorgia Meloni was officially sworn in as Italy’s prime minister. The new Italian government will have to tackle soaring energy prices and support struggling families and businesses, among other challenges.

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Conjunctural indicators for the Eurozone in October 2022

The PMI Composite Index posted 47.3 in October 23-month low. Private sector business activity across the euro area fell at the sharpest pace since November 2020, extending the downturn into a fourth straight month.

Artículo

Deglobalization: risks and opportunities for the EU

Is globalization going into reverse mode? Disruptions in supply chains caused by the Coronavirus lockdowns, together with the war in Ukraine and the economic and trade war that the West is fighting with Russia are more and more seen as evidence of a deglobalization trend. Obviously, the implications of a deglobalizing world are enormous for the world economy and for the EU in particular.

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How different EU Member States are dealing with the energy crisis

Policy responses across Europe to address the energy crisis have obvious similarities, but they also show some relevant differences. Dependencies on Russian gas and the health of public finances to provide state aid are two of several factors that are conditioning how EU Member States are responding individually to this challenge.

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Will the EU’s energy plans work?

Policy preparations for Europe’s most complicated winter are under way. EU countries have approved a number of measures in the last few weeks to guarantee energy supplies and support private consumers and businesses to cope with expensive bills.

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A bumpy back-to-school awaits policymakers in Europe

Back-to-school will be bumpy for businesses and citizens in Europe. We are experiencing a record level of inflation and the cost of everyday essentials like energy and food is rising much faster than average incomes.

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What’s coming next for the Spanish economy and its banks?

After a couple of weeks off, we are restarting our activities today. We hope you are making the most of your summer break.
In today’s newsletter, we are sharing with you our latest podcast featuring Alice Faibishenko, Senior Advisor at Funcas think tank and a founding partner of the E3 Partnership, a firm focused on market intelligence and advisory services.

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Conjunctural indicators for the Eurozone in June 2022

The PMI Composite Index reached 52 in June, the lowest level since February 2021. This suggests a marked slowdown in economic activity at the end of Q2.

Artículo

Is the ECB getting it right?

After Christine Lagarde announced a few days ago a substantial increase in interest rates (0,5%) and an anti-fragmentation mechanism – so called TPI – to prevent another debt crisis, we’ve asked Raymond Torres, Funcas Europe Director, to explain the main drivers behind this important decision. Don’t miss our latest podcast.

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The ECB’s policy conundrum

Higher and more persistent than expected inflation disrupted the ECB’s initial forward guidance from late 2021. As the ECB pivots to unwind stimulus more aggressively to tame inflation, it must minimize fragmentation risk and the disruption of monetary policy transmission across eurozone financial markets.

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Are we safe from another housing market crash?

As economic prospects deteriorate sharply, there are questions about what will happen to the real estate sector and the housing market. Are we safe from the bubble burst nightmare days that we suffered during the global financial crisis a little over a decade ago?

Artículo

El dilema de la política monetaria del BCE

El Banco Central Europeo (BCE) se enfrenta a un verdadero dilema, al intensificar el ritmo de retirada de los estímulos monetarios para hacer frente a una inflación desbocada, al tiempo que evita el riesgo de fragmentación de los mercados financieros de la eurozona y de una disrupción potencial del mecanismo de transmisión de la política monetaria.

Artículo

How to deal with stagflation

Back in the 70s developed economies were particularly hit by rising prices and low economic growth. There were two oil crises, currency turmoil and rising unemployment. Inflation reached 15% in the US in 1980.

Las sanciones occidentales a Rusia están teniendo un doble impacto sobre Europa y España; en primer término, el cese paulatino de intercambios está elevando los precios de la energía y con ellos, la inflación, pero también se está notando un efecto no menos importante en la confianza económica. Es probable que en otoño sean aún más visibles estos impactos, sobre todo en determinados sectores. La perturbación geopolítica de fondo, señala Raymond Torres, podría representar sin embargo una oportunidad para España.

Vídeo

Las sanciones a Rusia auguran un tenso otoño económico en Europa y España

Artículo

The Impact of the global food crisis and the potential policy answers

As the war in Ukraine has now gone on for over 100 days, its global economic consequences are becoming more and more visible and represent quite a concern for policymakers.

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Conjunctural indicators for the Eurozone in May 2022

The euro-zone economy started 2022 on a weak note but the improving health situation suggests that growth will pick up over the rest of the quarter. The PMI-HIS Markit Composite output index of the Eurozone in January reached 52,3. Pointing to the weakest increase in business activity since the headline index moved back into growth territory last March.

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State guarantee programs helping businesses through Covid and the Ukraine crisis

Today we are covering how State guarantee programs have played a key role to support businesses during Covid and what are the broader implications of these programs for our economies.

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Responses to the energy crisis: The cases of Germany, France, Italy and Spain

The emergency measures rolled out in Germany, Spain, France and Italy to mitigate the
impact of the war in Ukraine provide a short-term solution to the budding energy crisis.
However, their long-term efficacy is questionable, and they also exacerbate tensions
between inflation-curbing targets and energy model transformation ambitions, highlighting
the importance of formulating a big-picture plan to transition away from the recent measures
towards a long-term, sustainable energy strategy.

Artículo

Digitalización financiera en la pospandemia: ¿qué ha cambiado?

La pandemia ha acelerado significativamente el proceso de digitalización financiera: según la encuesta online de ODF-Funcas, el 36 % de los clientes bancarios accede actualmente todos o casi todos los días a la banca online, frente al 17 % de antes de la pandemia.

Artículo

Crisis energética: las respuestas de Alemania, España, Francia e Italia

El artículo realiza una revisión de los planes de choque puestos en marcha en los principales países de la UE para afrontar el incremento exponencial de los precios energéticos tras la invasión de Ucrania.

Artículo

Can Europe win the semiconductors global race?

Today we are here to cover the global battle for the production of semiconductors and whether Europe has a real plan to lead in this area.

Raymond Torres
Tras un período de relativo alivio a finales de 2021 y principios de 2022, la interrupción de las relaciones económicas con Rusia y las restricciones sanitarias en China han vuelto a causar cuellos de botella en el comercio internacional. Este proceso –en particular, en lo que afecta a materias primas y productos tecnológicos—, unido a los efectos de la crisis energética, está afectando de nuevo la industria europea y española. El sector automovilístico nacional, con su apuesta por el vehículo eléctrico, puede ser uno de los grandes afectados.

Vídeo

Los cuellos de botella vuelven a minar las perspectivas económicas

Artículo

How should policymakers deal with the economic impact of the energy crisis?

This week we are covering Europe’s mounting public debt. There is widespread agreement that EU governments had to act quickly and massively in response to the crisis.

Artículo

Newsletter: How is Ukraine’s war affecting the Russian and European economies?

It’s been over one month since Russia started the invasion of Ukraine. Since the 24th of February, the EU, together with key allies such as the UK, the US and others, have approved up to five rounds of sanctions against Russia, targeting some of its most critical sectors but leaving – at least for now – gas and oil outside of the equation.

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EMU peripheral sovereign debt: Resilience in the face of monetary policy and geopolitical risks

Looming ECB policy normalisation will likely lead to the rebalancing of relative prices for EMU peripheral sovereign debt. Nonetheless, improved economic fundamentals, the ECB’s commitment to preventing fresh episodes of financial fragmentation and favourable prospects for European integration should help reduce the risk of episodes of intense stress in the eurozone sovereign debt markets.

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Deuda de la periferia de la UEM ante la potencial retirada de estímulos monetarios y la crisis geopolítica

El cambio de tercio que se inicia en la política monetaria del BCE vendrá acompañado de un reequilibrio en el precio relativo de la deuda soberana de los países de la periferia.

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Newsletter: The impact of sanctions against Russia

Today we are back to cover sanctions, perhaps the word that’s been pronounced the most in the EU political corridors over the last few weeks.

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Newsletter: Economic and energy implications of Ukraine’s war

Sadly the crisis in Ukraine has turned into an actual war. Russia started a few days ago a full scale invasion of the country, and we are witnessing one of the most significant armed conflicts in Europe since the II World War.

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Conjunctural indicators for the Eurozone in January

The euro-zone economy started 2022 on a weak note but the improving health situation suggests that growth will pick up over the rest of the quarter. The PMI-HIS Markit Composite output index of the Eurozone in January reached 52,3. Pointing to the weakest increase in business activity since the headline index moved back into growth territory last March.

Artículo

La política monetaria y la pandemia: claves del debate actual

La pandemia de la COVID-19 marcará un antes y un después en el entorno y el desarrollo de la política monetaria del BCE. Este artículo comienza por repasar y valorar de forma conci­sa las principales medidas de política monetaria instrumentadas para hacer frente al impacto económico de la pandemia. Tras ello, el análisis trata de enmarcar el debate sobre dos de los retos a los que el BCE habrá de hacer frente en los próximos años. En primer lugar, deberá de prepararse para normalizar los tipos y la com­posición de su balance, minimizando el impac­to sobre la estabilidad financiera y resistiendo las presiones para que retrase el necesario ajuste.

Artículo

La política monetaria en la eurozona ante la COVID-19

En este artículo se describe la rápida, flexi­ble y eficaz actuación del BCE y sus efectos sobre la estabilidad financiera de la eurozo­na, como respuesta a la COVID-19.

Artículo

Newsletter: The key economic challenges facing the EU in 2022

This week we are revisiting the topic with concrete ideas on how the new rules should actually take shape.

Artículo

Recovering from the pandemic: The role of the macroeconomic policy mix

A new emphasis on policy coordination to mitigate the economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic led to a faster than expected European economic recovery, particularly compared to the Global Financial Crisis. However, policy coordination is still a challenge and will require a clear understanding of an unfamiliar economic context, together with strong agreement among European policymakers.

Artículo

Recuperándose de la pandemia: el papel del mix de políticas macroeconómicas

El mix de políticas económicas, basado principalmente en la interacción de las políticas monetaria y fiscal, ha desempeñado un papel esencial en promover la recuperación económica de Europa durante la pandemia, habiéndose visto reforzado por un ambicioso programa fiscal a nivel europeo como representa el Plan de Recuperación Next Generation EU.

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Newsletter: What to expect from the world economy in 2022

This week we are revisiting the topic with concrete ideas on how the new rules should actually take shape.

2021

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Newsletter: Why the EU needs a green golden rule

This week we are revisiting the topic with concrete ideas on how the new rules should actually take shape.

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Newsletter: Making fiscal rules friendly to public investment

This week we are revisiting the topic with concrete ideas on how the new rules should actually take shape.

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Newsletter: The EU needs new fiscal rules

This week we are taking a close look at what happened at the UN COP26 Glasgow summit. Are we going in the right direction in the fight against climate change after this important event?

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Newsletter: Fight against climate change gets reinforced after Glasgow

This week we are taking a close look at what happened at the UN COP26 Glasgow summit. Are we going in the right direction in the fight against climate change after this important event?

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Conjunctural indicators for the Eurozone in October 2021

The main short-term indicators suggest the euro-zone’s economic recovery might slow markedly in Q4, as supply shortages intensified, which caused a slowdown in manufacturing and service sectors.

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Newsletter: Why are labour shortages a serious challenge for recovery?

This week we are touching on the issue of labour shortages, a challenge that is affecting most advanced economies and that could complicate recovery after the pandemic.

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Conjunctural indicators for the Eurozone in September 2021

The main short-term indicators, notably PMIs, suggest phase, though still strong is losing momentum as as supply shortages take their toll, especially in manufacturing

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Newsletter: Can the energy crisis put at risk the green agenda?

This week we are covering the energy price crisis. This is a subject that is very concerning as many fear we are approaching an expensive winter.

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The ECB’s new look

The results of the ECB’s monetary strategy review announced in July suggest Christine Lagarde has succeeded in her promise to transform how the ECB works and how it communicates with the outside world. However, her first real test will come as the Bank begins to unwind its unconventional monetary policy instruments.

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Newsletter: German elections: what it means for Europe

This week we are focusing on the results of the German election. The stakes are obviously high for Germans, but also for Europe as a whole. It’s no secret the weight that the future German government will have on the EU’s key economic discussions.

Artículo

El nuevo look del BCE

El Banco Central Europeo (BCE) anunció en julio los resultados de la revisión de su estrategia de política monetaria. Como aspecto destacado, el Consejo de Gobierno ha definido un objetivo de inflación simétrico del 2 %. No obstante, la forma en que los responsables de la política monetaria reaccionan ante las desviaciones de su objetivo no es simétrica.

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Plan de Recuperación, Transformación y Resiliencia de España en el marco de los fondos europeos (16 de abril de 2021)

Al abordar la descripción de los fondos europeos es necesario diferenciar dos grandes paquetes: Marco Financiero Plurianual. Ciclo ordinario de fondos europeos que se fija a siete años. Aquí se circunscriben los fondos FEDER, horizonte Europa,…, y el bloque de recursos vinculados al Fondo Europeo de Recuperación. España recibirá 150.000 millones de euros por este concepto.

Artículo

Conjunctural indicators for the Eurozone August 2021

The main short-term indicators, notably PMIs, suggest that the recovery gathered momentum in the last few months. In August, the PMI-IHS Markit Composite Output Index of the Eurozone reached 59, slightly below the level of July (60,2), which marked the highest value since June 2006. This suggests that the Eurozone private sector is growing at its fastest rate for the last two decades, underpinned by increasing levels of output in both manufacturing and services sectors.

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Newsletter: Europe’s economic risks after the summer

This week we are taking a look at Europe’s main economic risks. What are the main concerns for policymakers as they come back to their office after the summer break? We’ve hosted a podcast conversation with Raymond Torres, Funcas Europe Director, and Carlos Carnicero Urabayen, Future is blue editorial coordinator.

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Newsletter: Addressing climate change: Fit for 55 proposals and challenges

We start the new course with a video interview about the Fit for 55 Commission proposal, the legislative roadmap to trigger a green transformation in Europe and meet the target of cutting greenhouse emissions by 55% in 2030. Our editorial coordinator Carlos Carnicero Urabayen has interviewed Lara Lázaro, Senior Analyst at Elcano Royal Institute. More on this below.

Artículo

New era, new strategy: the ECB’s revised approach to monetary policy

On 8 July 2021, the European Central Bank revealed its revised monetary policy strategy. It had been a long time coming: the previous strategy had been in place for eighteen years and even then had not changed much from the original strategy agreed in October 1998, just prior to the launch of monetary union. A review to be concluded by the end of 2020 had been announced in January 2020, but was extended in April 2020, because of the pandemic, until the second semester of 2021.

Artículo

Spain´s recovery plan: strengths and challenges

Spain is one of the countries which has most to gain from Next Generation EU, the key European-wide blueprint intended to kick-start the recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. For decades, particularly since the debt crisis of 2010, many of us demanded a comprehensive reform package to modernise the economy. Such a plan is now available and was endorsed by the European Commission on the 16th June.

Artículo

PREVISIONES ECONÓMICAS PARA LA ZONA EURO, 2021-22

Previsiones económicas para la zona euro, 2021-2022

[a] Contribución al crecimiento del PIB.
Fuente: Eurostat y Funcas (previsiones).

Descargar (formato pdf)

Artículo

Conjunctural indicators for the Eurozone June 2021

The main short-term indicators, notably PMIs, suggest that the recovery gathered momentum in the second quarter In June, the PMI-IHS Markit Composite Output Index of the Eurozone reached 59,5, leaving the index at its highest index level since June 2006.

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Newsletter: Video-talk: Global economic recovery from the Covid crisis

This week we are covering the prospects for a global recovery from the Covid crisis. We have reached out to Professor Karnit Flug, Vice President of Research and Willian Davidson Senior Fellow for Economic Policy at the Israel Democracy Institute, to discuss current trends.

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Spain’s business demographics post-COVID-19: An initial assessment

While the effect of COVID-19 on Spanish business demographics has been unprecedented, it has also been unequal, with certain sectors hit harder or recovering faster than others.

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The resilience of Spain’s manufacturers in the face of COVID-19

In comparison with peer countries, Spain’s manufacturing output held up relatively well amidst a historic contraction in GDP.

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Newsletter: The awakening of inflation

This week we are talking about inflation. The advanced economies have experienced remarkably low levels of inflation over the last decades. Now things are changing, and policymakers and central bankers are keeping a close look at it on both sides of the Atlantic.

Artículo

Vaccines: A serious warning to EU

It happens that we aren’t sure what’s happening.» Ortega y Gasset’s paradoxical axiom serves as a guide in this EU hour where the vaccination of the population, -a critical factor for success (and survival) in the face of the pandemic-, reveals the Union’s poor performance.

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Newsletter: Final countdown for the recovery funds to be released

This week we are covering the Spanish recovery plan to fully understand how the Spanish government is working to take full advantage of the EU Next Generation programme.

Artículo

The post Covid-19 new normal, a time for the decidedly abnormal: an opportunity for modern monetary theory?

With governments daily announcing ever more extensive economic support packages, fiscal and other rules discarded, and monetary policy about as easy as it could conceivably be, the macroeconomic paradigm prevailing across Europe has been transformed. The questions now are what next and how will matters evolve as the Covid-19 economic crisis abates? A much-discussed answer has been modern monetary theory (MMT), an approach to macroeconomic policymaking that had already gained considerable traction prior to the pandemic.

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Ratification of the EU Own-Resources Decision: what is the state of affairs?

The EU regulation governing the Recovery and Resilience Fund, which came into force in February, commits member states to submitting national recovery and resilience plans by the end of April. The European Commission will then have two months to evaluate the plans, which the Council is expected to approve by the end of July.

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Newsletter: Spain pushes ahead with Covid recovery plan while funds are delayed

This week we are covering the Spanish recovery plan to fully understand how the Spanish government is working to take full advantage of the EU Next Generation programme.

Artículo

Eurozone PMIs in March 2021

This month the IHS Markit Composite Output Index of the Eurozone increased by 4,4 points, thus leaving the index at an eight-month high. With a final value of 53,2, the Eurozone recorded a return to growth for the first time since October.

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Newsletter: The surge in commodity prices and European recovery prospects

Since the start of the year, the world economy is witnessing a significant increase in a wide range of commodity prices as well as lags in the delivery key inputs, such as semi-conductors.

Artículo

State aid to enterprises in France, Germany, Italy and Spain

One of the most worrying consequences of the crisis generated by the pandemic is the deterioration of the financial situation of European companies.

Artículo

Newsletter: The risks and opportunities of state aid to fight the Covid crisis

This week we are covering state aid, a policy instrument that is becoming more and more critical as the pandemic is hitting the EU economies for longer than expected. We’ve had a video discussion between Peter Bofinger, Professor for Monetary and International Economics at Würzburg University, hosted by Future is blue editorial coordinator Carlos Carnicero Urabayen.

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Eurozone fiscal reform in light of Covid-19: a review of existing proposals

The European Commission recently issued a communication to EU member states to clarify its medium-term fiscal policy stance

Artículo

Eurozone PMIs in February 2021

Even though the IHS Markit Composite Output Index of the Eurozone demonstrated a slower rate of contraction, shifting from 47,8 in January to 48,8 in February, the indicator remains below the no-change mark of 50 for the fourth consecutive month. In addition, the latest data suggests a sustained two-speed economy with a manufacturing and service sector that keep moving further apart.

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Newsletter: Italy’s economic prospects under Mario Draghi?s leadership

This week we are covering Italy’s economic prospects under the new leadership of Mario Draghi. We’ve recorded a podcast discussion with Orsola Costantini, Economic affairs officer at UNCTAD, hosted by Carlos Carnicero Urabayen, Future is blue editorial coordinator.

Artículo

How to deal with Europe’s mounting public debt?

This week we are covering Europe’s mounting public debt. There is widespread agreement that EU governments had to act quickly and massively in response to the crisis.

Artículo

Newsletter: Impact of vaccine delays on Europe’s economy

This week we are having a closer look at the impact of vaccine delays on Europe’s economy. Don’t miss our podcast where Christian Odendahl, Chief Economist at the Centre for European Reform, and myself respond to questions from Brussels journalist Carlos Carnicero Urabayen. More details below.

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Eurozone PMIs in January 2021

The IHS Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index reached 47,8 in January, well into negative territory and down from 49,1 the month before.

Artículo

The coming debate about European macroeconomic policy

The debate over the deactivation of the ‘general escape clause’ highlights the tension between the need for active fiscal stimulus and fiscal sustainability.

Artículo

El debate que viene sobre la política macroeconómica europea

Las conversaciones en el seno de la Comisión Europea sobre la posible desactivación de la cláusula general de salvaguardia podrían iniciarse dentro de unos pocos meses, aunque si las consecuencias económicas de la pandemia continúan agravándose, es muy posible que sean pospuestas.

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Newsletter: Europe’s response to COVID economic crisis

This week we are covering what to expect for the European economy in 2021.

Artículo

How could the ECB exit QE?

In December 2020, the ECB decided to continue its regular Asset Purchase Programme and the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme for at least another year. By the end of 2021, the ECB may have accumulated close to 5 trillion euros worth of bonds on its balance sheet.

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Eurozone PMIs in December 2020

The Eurozone composite PMI for December points to a contraction of activity for the second consecutive month, with an overall drop in demand and new orders.

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Newsletter: Light at the end of the tunnel, but still major hurdles ahead

On our side, we have prepared this first newsletter of 2021 looking ahead to try understand what will matter the most over the next few months.

2020

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Newsletter: Europe in a post-pandemic world

This week we are very pleased to share with you a new podcast, the first of more to come about Europe’s economic and policy-related challenges. We hope that over the next months we will bring new ideas for a more inspiring debate about Europe.

Artículo

Completing the banking union: the key role of the resolution backstop

As part of the debate on the impact of the EU recovery plan, a lot of emphasis has been put on the low absorption rate of EU cohesion funds.

Artículo

La respuesta de la política monetaria del Banco Central Europeo frente a la crisis de la COVID-19

Este documento revisa las diferentes medidas de política monetaria adoptadas por el BCE desde la irrupción de la pandemia

Artículo

Eurozone PMIs in November 2020

As predicted by the IHS Markit analysis of September, the Composite Output PMI for the Eurozone shrunk again in October, namely from a 50.4 to a plain 50.

Artículo

Plan de Recuperación para Europa: principales elementos e implicaciones para España (16 de octubre de 2020)

El contexto de partida está marcado por la crisis sin precedentes en tiempos de paz originada por la COVID–19, que está sacudiendo los cimientos económicos, institucionales y sociales en Europa.

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Newsletter: Brexit: there is still reason for optimism that a deal can be done this week

This week we are covering the fiscal situation of Spain. Santiago Lago Peñas,Professor of Applied Economics and Director of the Governance and Economics (University of Vigo), has recently published a report with worthy insights on the impact of the pandemic on Spain’s public finances and the way forward to reduce its public deficit.

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The NGEU recovery package in Spain: Structural challenges and proposal analysis

While the Next Generation EU (NGEU) recovery package was launched to counteract the economic ramifications of COVID-19, its success will depend on reversing the divergence between the economic performance of Spain and the EU, which pre-dates the crisis.

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Newsletter: The Spanish economy and the second wave of the pandemic

This week we are covering new insights on the health of the Spanish economy. A freshly published report by Funcas brings some new light on how Spain was doing before the pandemic in comparison to other EU Member States and what are the opportunities to relaunch the economy next year by taking advantage of EU funds.

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What the absorption of structural funds says about the EU recovery plan

As part of the debate on the impact of the EU recovery plan, a lot of emphasis has been put on the low absorption rate of EU cohesion funds.

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Newsletter: Vaccines: an intense economic rebound is around the corner

This week we are talking about the coveted COVID-19 vaccine. Recent news on different trials showing effectivity of about 90% are understandably generating huge expectations for the recovery of our lives and pockets.

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PMIs October 2020

As predicted by the IHS Markit analysis of September, the Composite Output PMI for the Eurozone shrunk again in October, namely from a 50.4 to a plain 50.

Artículo

Newsletter: Bidenomics, reducing US internal divisions while sustaining international economic leadership

This week we are covering the US elections. I’ve published an article with Juan Moscoso del Prado, Director of Global Affairs at Deusto Business School, where we argue that Biden’s biggest challenge will be to reduce the US internal divisions while keeping the US international economic leadership. I’ve included some of our main points below.

Artículo

Where TLTRO III may be going

The ECB’s Targeted Long-Term Refinancing Operations, or TLTRO, are non-standard monetary policy measures adopted in the aftermath of the Eurozone banking crisis.

Artículo

Newsletter: A Brexit agreement is in sight

This week we are covering the just announced budget proposal for 2021 presented by the Spanish government. In a nutshell: its expansionist nature goes in the right direction but some forecasts in it seem quite optimistic.

Artículo

Newsletter: The real issue is whether Spain can wait until the European funds become available?

This week we are analysing why Spain may not apply for an EU loan under the Next Generation EU programme. Before we get into details, let me advance that current borrowing costs are so low that incentives for extra borrowing under the new programme are missing. Other countries may face the same situation.

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Newsletter: IMF economic outlook and lessons learned to fight Coronavirus

The IMF is bringing a more positive perspective for 2020 for most advanced economies. Global output would fall by 4.4% compared to 5.2% as anticipated during the summer. Interestingly, the IMF is not broadly embracing austerity as the right answer, as it did 10 years ago. The shock for the eurozone in 2020 is now expected to be 1,9% milder, but the perspective for Spain is not getting any better (the IMF expects a decline of 12,8% GDP.) We hope you enjoy the video.

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Eurozone PMIs in September 2020

As explained in a previous note (1), the European Commission’s Next Generation EU recovery plan foresaw member states submitting national recovery and resilience plans by April 30 as annexes to their national reform plans.

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An analysis of the European Commission’s guidelines on the recovery fund

As explained in a previous note (1), the European Commission’s Next Generation EU recovery plan foresaw member states submitting national recovery and resilience plans by April 30 as annexes to their national reform plans.

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Newsletter: how can Spain take full advantage of the recovery plan?

Pazos Vidal has given us an assessment of what we know so far about Spain’s recovery plan. Don’t miss the video-interview where he covers the challenge of successfully absorbing EU funds, involving coordination between regional and central governments and reforming the public administration.

Artículo

The state of play on Banking Union

The Covid-19 pandemic has drastically changed the agenda of the European Union. Managing the associated economic crisis and the recovery have become the most important items.

Artículo

EU recovery fund: timetable and links with eurozone governance

At its latest meeting on September 9-10, the ECB Governing Council took no monetary policy actions, despite the surprise drop in eurozone inflation in August and the rise in the euro’s exchange rate

Artículo

The ECB’s decision to maintain its policy stance despite falling inflation: a comment

At its latest meeting on September 9-10, the ECB Governing Council took no monetary policy actions, despite the surprise drop in eurozone inflation in August and the rise in the euro’s exchange rate

Artículo

The EU recovery plan: funding arrangements and their impacts

The European Council of July 17-21 agreed on a €750bm Covid-19 recovery plan. This was part of a political agreement on the next EU budget

Artículo

The EU recovery fund: strengths and limitations

The recovery fund dominated the agenda of last weekend’s European Council, which also agreed on the EU’s 2021-2027 multiannual financial framework or “EU budget”.

Artículo

How to make Next Generation EU a success for the economy?

The package agreed by European leaders after five days of intense debate is a major step forward for the political integration of the EU.

Artículo

Spain and the European Recovery Plan

OECD forecasts indicate that Spain is one of the countries most impacted by COVID-19.

Llega la ayuda europea: extraordinaria pero con condiciones

Vídeo

Llega la ayuda europea: extraordinaria pero con condiciones

Artículo

España y el Plan Europeo de Recuperación

El Plan Europeo de Recuperación junto con el programa de compra de activos del Banco Central Europeo configuran los dos ejes principales de la respuesta de la Unión Europea ante la crisis económica derivada del COVID-19.

Artículo

The Eurogroup at the epicentre of crisis responses

One of the most powerful bodies which, along with the ECB, will determine the extent to which Europe will overcome the economic crisis which erupted as a result of the Covid-19 pandemics is not a well-established institution, but an informal club, namely the Eurogroup.

Artículo

‘Bringing it all back home’: a short-term necessity or the start of a long-run change in economic relations?

Texto introductorio que aparecerá en los listados.

Artículo

El plan europeo de recuperación: ¿impulso fiscal o política de oferta?

La crisis del COVID-19 ha impactado con una virulencia extraordinaria sobre la sociedad y la economía españolas.

Artículo

Indicadores económicos de Funcas para la eurozona 2018-2019

mayo 2020

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Previsiones económicas de Funcas para la eurozona 2018-2019

Previsiones económicas de Funcas para la eurozona 2018-2019

[a] Contribución al crecimiento del PIB.
Fuente: Dirección de Coyuntura y Estadística de Funcas (www.funcas.es); Haver Analytics.

Artículo

Overcoming the Covid-19 crisis through credit guarantees: rationale and risks

Since the start of the Covid-19 crisis there has been a heated debate regarding the use of government guarantees in order to support lending to the private sector.

Sentencia del constitucional alemán: ¿Cómo afectará al BCE?

Vídeo

Sentencia del constitucional alemán: ¿Cómo afectará al BCE?

Prensa

Financiar la reconstrucción

Raymond Torres

Enlace a la noticia

Prensa

Estados endeudados

Raymond Torres

Enlace a la noticia

La insuficiente respuesta del Eurogrupo

Vídeo

La insuficiente respuesta del Eurogrupo

Artículo

Covid-19 credit guarantees in the eurozone

Prensa

No es tiempo de quimeras

Raymond Torres

Enlace a la noticia

Prensa

Europa existe

Raymond Torres

Enlace a la noticia

Artículo

Averting a prolonged economic crisis stemming from Covid-19

Artículo

Spanish economic policy in response to Covid-19

Artículo

The ECB’s response to the Covid-19 crisis

Artículo

The ECB’s response to the Covid-19 crisis

Artículo

Internationalisation of the euro

Artículo

The climate change challenge for the Spanish economy

Artículo

Post-crisis money markets, monetary policy and financial stability

Artículo

Visions 2020

2019

Artículo

The economic agenda of the new Commission

Artículo

COP25: The business case

Libra: lanzamiento en entredicho

Vídeo

Libra: lanzamiento en entredicho

Artículo

Banking union: Strengths and contradictions of the German proposal

Lagarde: ¿nuevo rumbo en el BCE?

Vídeo

Lagarde: ¿nuevo rumbo en el BCE?

Reino Unido: costes del adiós

Vídeo

Reino Unido: costes del adiós

Artículo

Tres debates en torno a la política monetaria europea

El intenso debate sobre la prolongación de la política monetaria acomodaticia del Banco Central Europeo (BCE) se centra alrededor de tres cuestiones principales: las contingencias negativas a las que debe hacer frente dicha política, la transmisión de la política monetaria a la economía real y la co.

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The potential impacts of changes to the ECB’s deposit facility

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Previsiones económicas de Funcas para la eurozona 2017-2018

Desde el inicio del año, la economía de la eurozona ha acelerado su recuperación. Los indicadores de actividad y de confianza de los consumidores han repuntado, mejorando ligeramente los niveles anteriores a la crisis.

Artículo

Indicadores económicos de Funcas para la eurozona 2017-2018

Indicadores económicos de Funcas para la eurozona 2017-2018

The eurozone economic recovery has accelerated since the start of the year. Activity and consumer confidence indicators have spiked, slightly outperforming pre-crisis levels (Exhibit 1). Meanwhile, international trade flows both within the eurozone and with third countries have increased, in line with the recovery in global markets. GDP grew by 0.6% in the first quarter and 1.9% relative the same quarter of 2016 (Table 1). All countries in the single currency saw a pick-up in growth compared to the last quarter of 2016.

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Spanish public debt holdings at the end of the ECB’s purchase programme

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Ciclos económicos y clusters regionales en Europa

El análisis de los ciclos económicos de las regiones europeas pone de relieve la existencia de importantes asimetrías que dan lugar a la configuración de distintos caracterizados por patrones de comportamiento diferentes.

Artículo

Estabilidad de precios, forward guidance y construcción de la unión monetaria

Los esfuerzos del Banco Central Europeo (BCE) en aras de la integración monetaria y de potenciar las indicaciones prospectivas (forward guidance) de política monetaria tienen por objeto mejorar el funcionamiento de la unión económica y monetaria.

2018

Artículo

The 2018 EU stress tests: A behind-thescenes analysis

Evento

Conferencia «Reformando el Euro»

Artículo

Las implicaciones macroeconómicas y sobre el sector bancario de la política monetaria del BCE

ES:
Este artículo revisa brevemente la actuación del BCE desde mediados de 2014, cuando la autoridad monetaria inició una nueva fase de política monetaria expansiva.

Artículo

Retos a los que se enfrentan la Fed y el BCE

ES:
Ahora que las condiciones macroeconómicas se están normalizando a ambos lados del Atlántico, ha llegado el momento de que los bancos centrales desmantelen el arsenal de medidas que han implementado durante los últimos años.

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La política monetaria en la encrucijada

ES:
En este artículo se revisan las respuestas de la política monetaria a la crisis para, a continuación, discutir su repliegue una vez consolidado el crecimiento y, en concreto, determinar si la falta de tensión inflacionista en Europa debería o no retrasar el cambio de tono de la políti.

2017

Evento

El futuro de Europa

Artículo

El ciclo económico en Europa

2014

Artículo

Hacia una integración fiscal más eficiente: enseñanzas para Europa de las prácticas de federalismo fiscal

ES:
Este artículo se dedica a discutir las posibles vías de consecución de una mayor integración fiscal. Para ello, se analiza el papel que desempeñan los gobiernos centrales, en el marco de una federación, como órganos encargados de dar forma a las políticas fiscales subnacionales.

Artículo

Elementos clave de la integración fiscal en la zona del euro

ES:
Los modelos de unión fiscal incorporan equilibrios entre mecanismos de compartición de riesgos y, para que sea políticamente aceptable, también reglas e instituciones orientadas a reducir dichos riesgos.

Artículo

Los atributos de una unión fiscal en Europa: recursos propios, unión de transferencias y deuda

ES:
En este trabajo se analiza el presupuesto de la actual Unión Europea (UE-27) teniendo presentes los objetivos y funciones propias de la hacienda federal de una unión fiscal avanzada.

Artículo

El nuevo marco de gobernanza fiscal europeo

ES:
Como respuesta a la crisis de deuda soberana en la zona del euro, se ha efectuado una reforma profunda de la gobernanza fiscal en la Unión Europea.

Artículo

Competencia fiscal versus armonización fiscal: una revisión de los argumentos

ES:
La competencia fiscal, especialmente en lo relacionado con el impuesto sobre sociedades, es un tema muy debatido en la Unión Europea.

Artículo

Consecuencias de una unión monetaria sin unión fiscal

ES:
La zona del euro no es un Área Monetaria Óptima (AMO), no dispone de estabilizadores automáticos y por lo tanto necesita una unión fiscal para sobrevivir. El Tratado Intergubernamental de Estabilidad Fiscal de 2011 (FC) retrasa más que ayuda a la necesaria unión fiscal.

Artículo

Estabilidad, integración y crisis de la deuda soberana: la historia del euro en tres trilemas

ES:
Trilema (también llamado «trinidad imposible »): elección entre tres opciones favorables, siendo solo dos posibles simultáneamente.

Artículo

¿Es posible una unión monetaria sin unión fiscal y una unión fiscal sin unión política?

ES:
La Gran Recesión ha puesto de relieve las serias deficiencias existentes en el diseño de la unión monetaria. Un área monetaria necesita instituciones monetarias, pero también instituciones fiscales comunes.

Artículo

¿Debe reducirse el exceso de deuda en la eurozona?

Artículo

La Europa social en crisis. Modelo Social Europeo y políticas de austeridad

Artículo

Garantizar la transmisión de las señales de política: una revisión de la política monetaria del BCE desde 2007 hasta 2013

ES:
El artículo explica cómo el BCE, con sus medidas convencionales y no convencionales, cumplió con su mandato de mantener la estabilidad de precios a partir de 2007.

Artículo

Políticas no convencionales virtuales. La recuperación en la zona del euro y el papel de la política del BCE

ES:
Las medidas recientes del BCE se pueden caracterizar como políticas monetarias fuera de balance con la estructura de los contratos derivados. Tales iniciativas pueden tener profundos efectos en los mercados financieros y la economía.

Artículo

Enfrentándose a la baja inflación: las opciones del BCE

ES:
La inflación de la zona del euro es inferior al 1 por 100 desde octubre de 2013, y las expectativas de inflación a medio plazo son muy inferiores al 2 por 100. Los pronósticos de retorno al objetivo de inflación han sido equivocados.

Artículo

Fragmentación financiera y ruptura de la transmisión de la política monetaria en la eurozona

ES:
La crisis financiera y los problemas derivados de su posterior agravamiento, del deterioro de las condiciones fiscales y de la situación de fragilidad de los sistemas bancarios de algunos países europeos, contribuyeron a incrementar el grado de fragmentación de los principales mercado.

2013

Evento

Construir una unión bancaria

Artículo

Unión bancaria: elementos integrantes y medidas complementarias

Artículo

La integración de los sistemas de pago en Europa al amparo de la SEPA. El caso del pago móvil

Artículo

Implicaciones del futuro TAFTA UE-EE.UU., el mayor tratado comercial bilateral de la historia

Nos encontramos ante el proceso de negociación bilateral en materia de comercio internacional más ambicioso de la historia.

Artículo

Implications of the EU-US TTIP: The largest bilateral trade agreement in history

The EU and the US are involved in the most ambitious trade liberalization negotiations process ever witnessed. The road ahead will necessarily require surpassing existing difficulties in a number of relevant issues foreseen on the negotiators’ agendas.

Artículo

Presupuestos de la Unión Europea

2012

Artículo

La crisis de deuda soberana: una perspectiva europea

Artículo

El sistema de ajustes IVA y RNB en la Unión Europea

Artículo

Financing the euro area economy: The role of the Eurosystem

Libro

La distribución regional del empleo y desempleo en la Unión Europea y España

2011

Artículo

Comentarios al Pacto del Euro

2008
2003

Artículo

Una nueva política agraria para una nueva Unión

2002

Artículo

Las regiones europeas y la ampliación de la UE

Artículo

La política monetaria del eurosistema

El objetivo de este artículo es pasar revista a la actuación del BCE desde su creación, cen- trándose en elanálisis del funcionamiento de su estrategia, su política de comunicación, y sus instrumentos y procedimiento de política monetaria.

Artículo

La política de competencia en Europa

El artículo examina el presente y las perspectivas dela política europea de la competencia.

2000

Artículo

La nueva política monetaria del eurosistema

This article describes the four coordinates of the Eurosystem monetary policy -its aim, its strategy, the operating framework and the approach- bearing in mind the essential features denoting the monetary policy of the euro area with regard to any other country’s or region’s.

Artículo

La UEM y el sistema bancario europeo

This article carries out a review of the main structural and competitive features of the European banking sectors and of the impact caused by EMU.

1995

Artículo

Crecimiento económico, factor residual y convergencia en los países de la Europa Comunitaria

ES:
El trabajo tiene por objeto, en una primera parte, establecer una descomposición del crecimiento económico en los países de la Unión Europea en las tres últimas décadas entre utilización de inputs y factor residual,atendiendo al esquema contable propuesto por Solow.

1993

Artículo

En torno a El reto europeo…., de José Viñals

1992

Artículo

La política pesquera en la CE y en España

1988

Artículo

La política agrícola común y su impacto regional en España

1985

Artículo

La adhesión de España al mercado común agrícola

Funcas

Think tank dedicado a la investigación económica y social

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