Funcas Europe


2024

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How the EU is adapting to post-pandemic global trade shifts

In a recent episode of Funcas’ Future is Blue podcast, we hosted Professor Iain Begg from the London School of Economics and Political Science and Raymond Torres, Director of Funcas Europe, to discuss the European Union (EU) budget and the pressing need for its reform. We covered the historical context, current challenges, and potential future directions for the EU budget

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Navigating EU budget reforms: challenges, controversies, and future directions

In a recent episode of Funcas’ Future is Blue podcast, we hosted Professor Iain Begg from the London School of Economics and Political Science and Raymond Torres, Director of Funcas Europe, to discuss the European Union (EU) budget and the pressing need for its reform. We covered the historical context, current challenges, and potential future directions for the EU budget

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EU trade and investment in the midst of re-globalisation

An analysis of EU trade and foreign direct investment flows reveals a relative decline in the EU’s competitive position, notably with respect to the US and China, with the EU now a major net exporter of capital to invest in companies located in other countries. Greater participation by member states in the single market has played a mitigating role but is insufficient to offset the broader weakness unless supported with strategies for revitalising investments within the bloc.

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El comercio exterior y la inversión internacional de la UE ante la reglobalización

Este artículo repasa la reorientación de los intercambios internacionales que se ha producido desde la pandemia, con especial atención a la posición relativa de la Unión Europea (UE) con respecto a EE. UU. y China. En base a este análisis, se esbozan algunos de los principales retos para la política económica europea y española.

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Addressing the housing crisis in Europe

In a recent podcast interview, Carlos Carnicero Urabayen spoke with Hans Dubois, a Senior Research Manager at Eurofound, about the pressing issue of housing affordability in Europe

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Spain’s labour market: a story of convergence towards Europe

Spain has long grappled with the challenge of unemployment. In recent decades, the labor market has stood as a testament to the country's economic challenges. Yet, as a recent Future is Blue podcast episode highlights, there is a budding resilience in the Spanish labor force, highlighting evolution from the historical trends of high unemployment, particularly during times of economic uncertainty.

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Navigating turbulent geopolitical waters: Europe’s response to Chinese and American economic competition

In a new Future is Blue podcast show hosted by Carlos Carnicero Urabayen, Sander Tordoir, Senior Economist at the Centre for European Reform, delved into the intricate dynamics of the global geopolitical landscape, the rise of economic nationalism and Europe's strategic positioning amidst the assertive manoeuvres of superpowers like the United States and China.

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¿Puede convertirse la Política Agrícola Común (PAC) en la política alimentaria de la Unión Europea?

Este artículo pone de manifiesto que la Política Agrícola Común (PAC), pese a su progresiva multifuncionalización, ha perdido demasiadas competencias en favor de otras políticas comunes para consagrarse como ‘LA’ política alimentaria exclusiva de la Unión Europea.

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The EU's trade dynamics in a changing global landscape

Recent economic challenges and geopolitical rivalries have transformed the perception of the benefits derived from international trade and cooperation. While the early 1990s saw the creation of trade agreements and open economies marking a period of global transformation and collaboration, the past two decades have seen globalization viewed more as a source of risks than as a catalyst for growth.

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La economía europea ante los desafíos globales

La economía europea ha capeado mejor de los previsto las consecuencias de la pandemia, la guerra en Ucrania, la crisis energética y el giro copernicano de la política monetaria. Una recesión de gran magnitud ha podido evitarse, y las previsiones apuntan a una ligera recuperación en el transcurso del año, evidenciando una resiliencia notable.

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Spain's economic outlook: Navigating through uncertainty

Following a long negotiation period, the EU has reached an agreement on new fiscal rules. The revised framework represents a compromise between the more hawkish positions which advocate a rapid return to fiscal balance and the need for a gradual approach that preserves growth prospects.  What will be the impact of the new framework for Europe’s economy in the medium and long term?

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Unpacking the EU’s new fiscal rules

Following a long negotiation period, the EU has reached an agreement on new fiscal rules. The revised framework represents a compromise between the more hawkish positions which advocate a rapid return to fiscal balance and the need for a gradual approach that preserves growth prospects.  What will be the impact of the new framework for Europe’s economy in the medium and long term?

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Europe’s new regime for macroeconomic policy coordination: A first look

In the last days of its rotating presidency, the Spanish government successfully led negotiations in the Council of the European Union to agreement on a new regime for macroeconomic policy coordination. Once agreed by the European Parliament, the new framework will significantly increase national ownership of fiscal consolidation, while at the same time easing the path of adjustment in comparison with the framework it replaces.

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El nuevo régimen europeo de coordinación de las políticas macroeconómicas: una primera mirada

Este artículo señala que el nuevo marco de coordinación de las políticas macroeconómicas debería fortificar los esfuerzos por frenar los desequilibrios macroeconómicos y reducir la volatilidad no deseada de los mercados financieros.

2023

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Our most popular content of 2023

Before we close 2023, we wanted to share with you some of our most successful content of the year.

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EuroInsights: economic lessons in 2023

Today we take a bit of a step back and reflect on key developments that have impacted European public finances in the last couple of years.

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La Unión Europea: tres crisis y un destino

La Unión Económica y Monetaria (UEM) se ha visto afectada por tres shocks de distinta naturaleza y, en consecuencia, ha ido transformando su gobernanza para hacerles frente, pero siempre lo ha hecho con retraso.

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La Europa del futuro: ¿del Next Generation a un plan para las futuras generaciones?

El NGEU fue adoptado en 2020 con el objetivo de paliar los efectos de la pandemia. Casi tres años después, parece ser un buen momento para hacer un balance preliminar de su implementación y discutir su futuro.

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El futuro de la política monetaria en un contexto inflacionista

Este trabajo analiza, en primer lugar, la dinámica reciente de la inflación en la eurozona, con el fin de entender su origen (ligado a la superposición de la doble perturbación de oferta provocada por la pandemia y la invasión de Ucrania) y evolución prevista.

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La agroalimentación europea en un contexto global

La Unión Europea es un importante nodo del comercio internacional agroalimentario y debe asumir una responsabilidad importante en relación a la seguridad alimentaria global, lo que exige adaptar la Política Agraria Común al Pacto Verde Europeo, y contribuir al desarrollo de nuevas tecnologías, clarificando la regulación de algunas de ellas.

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La economía europea tras el shock geopolítico

La recuperación de la economía europea que se esperaba tras la pandemia se ha visto afectada por la sucesión de perturbaciones de oferta, cuyo origen es esencialmente geopolítico.

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Hacia una nueva agenda industrial para la Unión Europea basada en la resiliencia

El presente trabajo muestra que el mercado único impulsó la integración comercial, y apunta a efectos positivos en términos de resiliencia asociados a la integración de la cadena de suministro dentro de la UE.

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La nueva política industrial y la transición digital en la Unión Europea

La política industrial, tan denostada en décadas anteriores y ausente de los tratados fundacionales de la Unión Europea, ha vuelto a tomar un carácter protagonista en la dinámica estratégica de países como Estados Unidos y China. También en Europa, tras la crisis financiera y la pandemia del COVID-19, se ha ido construyendo una política industrial más proactiva, acompañada de tratados bilaterales que han liberalizado el comercio con países con los que existe una relación más estrecha.

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La política energética europea en la encrucijada

La Unión Económica y Monetaria (UEM) se ha visto afectada por tres shocks de distinta naturaleza y, en consecuencia, ha ido transformando su gobernanza para hacerles frente, pero siempre lo ha hecho con retraso.

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Una política de defensa para Europa: perspectiva de futuro e impacto en la industria de defensa

Con la puesta en marcha de la Estrategia Global de la UE en 2016 se abre la puerta a la expansión de una política industrial de defensa que se encontraba hasta entonces en un estado embrionario.

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Europa y los países emergentes en esta nueva fase de la globalización

En un período en que el poder económico y empresarial se desplaza del Atlántico al Pacífico, los datos que analizamos en este artículo corroboran que Asia se está convirtiendo en un destino importante de las inversiones internacionales europeas a pesar de las guerras comerciales y las sanciones.

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Europa como bloque comercial

En este artículo se analiza la evolución del protagonismo de la Unión Europea en la globalización comercial y se resumen los principales rasgos de la nueva política comercial de la Unión Europea a través, por un lado, de los acuerdos de nueva generación y, por otro, de los instrumentos para potenciar la autonomía estratégica abierta.

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Spain's resilience amidst geopolitical turmoil

Today we take a bit of a step back and reflect on key developments that have impacted European public finances in the last couple of years.

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Europe's public finances amidst pandemic, war, and energy crisis

Today we take a bit of a step back and reflect on key developments that have impacted European public finances in the last couple of years.

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🇨🇳 🇪🇺Trade wars on wheels?

The European Commission's decision to investigate the impact of state subsidies on Chinese electric vehicle (EV) imports in the European market has ...

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The uncertain duration of high interest rates

Monetary policy remains immersed in an intense battle to stem inflation. We are seeing a quick succession of interest rate increases and, consequently, raising eurozone borrowing rates across the board. Credit has already contracted, and the cost of debt has increased, but the duration of the tightening cycle remains unclear as monetary authorities have signaled that their policy approach remains conditional upon the path of inflation.

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The coming fiscal adjustment in Europe

Whether or not there is a reform of the rules for European macroeconomic policy coordination, policymakers across Europe will need to begin consolidating their fiscal accounts. The high rate of inflation in the wake of the pandemic has eased some of that adjustment burden, but the swift monetary tightening introduced to calm rapid price increases will add to the challenge.

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The European Central Bank’s supervisory priorities

The shift in the macroeconomic environment facing the financial sector and the attendant switch in monetary policy tack, together with the recent episodes of financial turbulence in a number of markets, have strengthened the European Central Bank’s resolve to reinforce the resilience of the European banking system. Despite the current environment’s risks, through an assessment of the ECB’s supervisory priorities, recent findings support the strength and adaptability of the European banking sector, so mitigating the probability of future episodes of financial turbulence, such as those observed in other regions.

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Higher interest rates, excess liquidity and the ECB’s balance sheet

Although the ultimate price stability target has not changed and overnight interest rates remain the channel for policy transmission to the economy, the ECB’s balance sheet has taken on greater purpose relative to its traditional role as a support instrument for monetary policy. Against this backdrop, with the ECB now embarked on the path of policy “normalisation”, it is timely to assess whether it is possible to return to the way things were before 2007, given that excess liquidity is determined by factors exogenous to monetary policy and can coexist with it indefinitely, even if policy is restrictive, as it is today.

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China's debt domino effect: Is the world economy at risk?

China's debt has been rising dramatically over the past decade. Some are arguing that this represents a risk for its own stability and that, ultimately, considering China's size, a bursting of the debt bubble could trigger a new episode of global financial stress.

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El ascenso de los tipos de interés, el exceso de liquidez y el balance del BCE

Este artículo hace balance del trasunto de la política monetaria desde la crisis financiera hasta hoy.

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Prioridades de supervisión del Banco Central Europeo

Este artículo analiza la necesidad del BCE de reforzar la capacidad de resistencia del sistema bancario europeo ante eventos de inestabilidad.

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El inminente ajuste fiscal en Europa

El panorama fiscal europeo experimentó un giro significativo a raíz de la pandemia de COVID-19,
resultando en un aumento pronunciado de la deuda pública. En respuesta, la Comisión Europea invocó
la “cláusula general de salvaguardia” del Pacto de Estabilidad y Crecimiento en marzo de 2020 para
permitir un gasto público adicional.

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Recession, Inflation, Stagflation? Insights from the ECB and fiscal policy dilemmas

Today we discuss EU-China economic relations, a critical topic. China is the EU's second-largest trading partner, and the EU is China's largest trading partner, highlighting the high degree of economic interdependence. However, this relationship poses significant challenges such us trade imbalances (to the detriment of the EU), emerging technological gaps, state subsidies and claims of unfair competition.

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Unpacking German Economic troubles

Today we discuss EU-China economic relations, a critical topic. China is the EU's second-largest trading partner, and the EU is China's largest trading partner, highlighting the high degree of economic interdependence. However, this relationship poses significant challenges such us trade imbalances (to the detriment of the EU), emerging technological gaps, state subsidies and claims of unfair competition.

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Money and Machines: Navigating AI's impact on finance

Today we discuss EU-China economic relations, a critical topic. China is the EU's second-largest trading partner, and the EU is China's largest trading partner, highlighting the high degree of economic interdependence. However, this relationship poses significant challenges such us trade imbalances (to the detriment of the EU), emerging technological gaps, state subsidies and claims of unfair competition.

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The real impact of AI on labor markets

Today we discuss EU-China economic relations, a critical topic. China is the EU's second-largest trading partner, and the EU is China's largest trading partner, highlighting the high degree of economic interdependence. However, this relationship poses significant challenges such us trade imbalances (to the detriment of the EU), emerging technological gaps, state subsidies and claims of unfair competition.

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The EU and the US-China rivalry: conversation with Joaquín Almunia

Today we discuss EU-China economic relations, a critical topic. China is the EU's second-largest trading partner, and the EU is China's largest trading partner, highlighting the high degree of economic interdependence. However, this relationship poses significant challenges such us trade imbalances (to the detriment of the EU), emerging technological gaps, state subsidies and claims of unfair competition.

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Industrial policy in the EU and Spain: Recent debates

An examination of industrial policy in the EU and Spain reveals the need to reduce key external dependencies, or interdependencies, as well as arrive at an adequate path that avoids protectionist retaliation to the recently passed US Inflation Reduction Act, while at the same time harnesses the economic potential of the bloc. Going forward, taking into consideration current obstacles and limitations both at the EU and Spanish level, it will be necessary to embrace the appropriate industrial policy measures to ensure the transformation of the Spanish economy, in particular through maximisation of NGEU funds.

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Política industrial en la UE y España: debates recientes

Este trabajo realiza una revisión de los principales debates abiertos actualmente para la concepción, diseño e implementación de la política industrial en la UE y en España.

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Dealing with China

Today we discuss EU-China economic relations, a critical topic. China is the EU's second-largest trading partner, and the EU is China's largest trading partner, highlighting the high degree of economic interdependence. However, this relationship poses significant challenges such us trade imbalances (to the detriment of the EU), emerging technological gaps, state subsidies and claims of unfair competition.

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Global outlook and key trends about inflation in Spain

Given the importance of the evolution of prices to the outlook for monetary policy and hence, the overall macro picture, in today's newsletter we focus on the recent performance of one of the EU countries where disinflation is most visible, namely Spain.

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New ideas to fight inflation

There are some good news in this front. Inflation in the eurozone has fallen to its lowest level since Russia invaded Ukraine

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How to win the inflation battle?

Welcome to our newsletter about European economic affairs bringing together top experts from academia and think tanks to discuss the most pressing economic challenges of today. Future is Blue is promoted by Funcas. 

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Rising interest rates and the impact on Europe's economy

This week we are taking a closer look at the recent evolution of the Euribor, the key reference for the European financial markets, in terms of its impact on the banking sector.

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How concerning is the banking stress?

A few weeks ago we were discussing about the improved economic prospects for 2023 and the possibility to avoid a recession this year in the EU. 

In the meantime, however, financial markets have entered a period of turbulence in the aftermath of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. To get a grasp of the economic impacts for Europe of this new shock, we have reached out to Iain Begg, Professor at LSE, who's joining our podcast show this week with Raymond Torres, Funcas Europe Director, and Carlos Carnicero Urabayen, our host. More details below.

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Euro yield curve evolution and real long-term rates

Assessing the recent evolution of euro interest rates reveals that following the significant upward shift in short-term rates since the summer of 2021, long-term rates may have already stabilised at restrictive levels. Under this scenario, as short-term rates keep increasing, longer-term rates could gradually stabilise, generating a downward sloping yield curve.

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Shadow banking: A distortion of the banking business

Since the great recession, shadow banking has been growing worldwide, especially in the US and the Eurozone. However, monetary tightening and new capital requirements for private equity will likely slow down shadow banking growth.

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La nueva curva de tipos de interés del euro: ¿pivotando sobre el largo plazo?

Este artículo realiza una revisión analítica de los nuevos niveles de tipos de interés alcanzados recientemente por el euro, recogiendo y anticipando las subidas aprobadas por el Banco Central Europeo (BCE) y el inicio de la normalización de su balance, así como el nuevo contexto de inflación en la eurozona.

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Can we avoid a trade conflict in the Atlantic?

Did you know that 2022 marked a record year for rate increases? All around the world central bankers raised interest rates a 200 times, smashing the last record which dated to 2006 (120 increases).

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El Pacto de Estabilidad y Crecimiento. A la búsqueda del equilibrio entre dominancia monetaria y estabilización

Este artículo repasa repasa la evolución del Pacto de Estabilidad y Crecimiento, incluyendo las reformas de 2005, 2011 (Six Pack) y 2013 (Two Pack), así como el establecimiento de las cláusulas de flexibilidad en 2016 y del margen de discreción en 2017.

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Análisis del marco presupuestario de la Unión Europea y su posible reforma: la disyuntiva entre reducir y compartir riesgos

El presente trabajo repasa la evolución y los resultados obtenidos por el marco de gobernanza fiscal de la UE durante las últimas décadas, a fin de encuadrar las actuales negociaciones políticas de reforma. Se pone énfasis en un reto fundamental para avanzar en la integración en el ámbito fiscal: la idea de que esta puede alcanzarse sin ir acompañada de una mejor cooperación o representación.

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El marco institucional de reglas fiscales en España y su valoración

A lo largo de este artículo se identifican las principales deficiencias y limitaciones observadas en la aplicación práctica del del marco fiscal nacional y europeo. La AIReF aporta su visión y unas propuestas de elementos para la reforma.

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Record rises in interest rates and banks' financing in 2023

Did you know that 2022 marked a record year for rate increases? All around the world central bankers raised interest rates a 200 times, smashing the last record which dated to 2006 (120 increases).

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Conjunctural indicators for the Eurozone in January 2023

The PMI Composite Index posted 47.3 in October 23-month low. Private sector business activity across the euro area fell at the sharpest pace since November 2020, extending the downturn into a fourth straight month.

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Economía internacional en tiempos de policrisis

La economía internacional afronta el nuevo año intentando digerir los efectos de las sorpresas negativas acumuladas desde principios de 2020 que han provocado el mayor desequilibrio entre oferta y demanda de las últimas décadas.

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Is the IMF getting it right about the world economy?

Is the IMF getting it right with its latest predictions about the world economy? According to its latest global outlook, the world economy will slow this year as central ...

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The global economy in times of polycrisis

2022 was characterised by uncertainty, economic and financial markets volatility, and most
importantly, an acceleration in the regime shift in which the global economy is immersed.
Although many questions remain unanswered, 2023 should shed some more light on
key future international economic trends, with the search for a new equilibrium in prices, economic policy and geopolitics the main variables to watch.

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Managing the risks of quantitative tightening in the euro area

Recent quantitative tightening decisions undertaken by the ECB are important to reduce surplus liquidity and improve the functioning of the monetary transmission mechanism in the euro area. Nevertheless, they pose important risks for commercial banks, central banks, government finances, and the ECB itself.

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La gestión de los riesgos del endurecimiento cuantitativo en la eurozona

Analiza los riesgos y oportunidades
que tendrá la reducción del balance del Eurosistema para
los bancos comerciales y los gobiernos de la eurozona.

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What to expect in the European economy in 2023

What to expect in Europe's economy in 2023? We can't think of a more pertinent question to restart our podcast series this season.

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Conjunctural indicators for the Eurozone in December 2022

The PMI Composite Index posted 47.3 in October 23-month low. Private sector business activity across the euro area fell at the sharpest pace since November 2020, extending the downturn into a fourth straight month.

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The Iberian energy price cap and its impact (staffettaonline.com)

Los precios energéticos ya producen efectos de segunda ronda que lastran las perspectivas.

2022

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Our most popular podcast content of 2022

It's been quite a year for stock markets globally. The losses have been massive and financial actors are having to confront a highly uncertain environment.

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A year of change in financial markets

It's been quite a year for stock markets globally. The losses have been massive and financial actors are having to confront a highly uncertain environment.

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The ECB´s normalisation strategy: Uncertainty and legacies

The ECB is facing an extraordinary situation in which it is unable to rely on an economic slowdown alone to curb inflation. Only with decisive and swift action on normalisation of both interest rates and its monetary policy toolkit, comprised of legacy long-term liquidity injections and asset purchases, can the ECB prove its determination to bring inflation back in line with official targets and anchor inflation expectations.

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TLTRO and bank liquidity in the new rate scenario

The ECB´s targeted longer-term refinancing operations, or TLTROs, were designed to be one of the key mechanisms to keep credit flowing through the banking system to the real economy during the crisis. Beyond the negative impact on banks´ earnings of recent changes to TLTRO terms in order to better align them with other monetary policy instruments, the European and Spanish banking systems have sufficient liquidity to handle the maturity or prepayment of their TLTRO funds, as well as to meet anticipated credit growth next year, thanks to their excess reserves, evolution of retail deposits and funds, and planned bond market issuance.

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La política monetaria del Banco Central Europeo frente a la crisis pandémica

Este artículo revisa las diferentes medidas de política monetaria adoptadas por la institución desde la irrupción de la pandemia y proporciona una explicación de su motivación, así como varios análisis de impacto del PEPP sobre la economía española y sobre el área del euro en su conjunto.

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TLTRO y liquidez bancaria en el nuevo escenario de tipos

En este artículo se analizan las opciones disponibles para esa reconducción y sus implicaciones para la liquidez bancaria.

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Nueva estrategia del BCE: el peso de la incertidumbre y del legado

El objetivo de este artículo es revisar dos aspectos de la política monetaria: la definición de la estrategia de normalización en un contexto “nada normal”, en el que la inflación se ha disparado, y la gestión del legado de la instrumentación de la larga etapa anterior –trece años— de posición acomodaticia, que tuvo que enfrentarse a dificultades de trasmisión a los mercados monetarios y de deuda pública relacionada con la crisis bancaria y la del euro.

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Key challenges for the new Italian government

On 22 October, Giorgia Meloni was officially sworn in as Italy’s prime minister. The new Italian government will have to tackle soaring energy prices and support struggling families and businesses, among other challenges.

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Conjunctural indicators for the Eurozone in October 2022

The PMI Composite Index posted 47.3 in October 23-month low. Private sector business activity across the euro area fell at the sharpest pace since November 2020, extending the downturn into a fourth straight month.

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Deglobalization: risks and opportunities for the EU

Is globalization going into reverse mode? Disruptions in supply chains caused by the Coronavirus lockdowns, together with the war in Ukraine and the economic and trade war that the West is fighting with Russia are more and more seen as evidence of a deglobalization trend. Obviously, the implications of a deglobalizing world are enormous for the world economy and for the EU in particular.

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How different EU Member States are dealing with the energy crisis

Policy responses across Europe to address the energy crisis have obvious similarities, but they also show some relevant differences. Dependencies on Russian gas and the health of public finances to provide state aid are two of several factors that are conditioning how EU Member States are responding individually to this challenge.

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Will the EU's energy plans work?

Policy preparations for Europe's most complicated winter are under way. EU countries have approved a number of measures in the last few weeks to guarantee energy supplies and support private consumers and businesses to cope with expensive bills.

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A bumpy back-to-school awaits policymakers in Europe

Back-to-school will be bumpy for businesses and citizens in Europe. We are experiencing a record level of inflation and the cost of everyday essentials like energy and food is rising much faster than average incomes.

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What's coming next for the Spanish economy and its banks?

After a couple of weeks off, we are restarting our activities today. We hope you are making the most of your summer break.
In today's newsletter, we are sharing with you our latest podcast featuring Alice Faibishenko, Senior Advisor at Funcas think tank and a founding partner of the E3 Partnership, a firm focused on market intelligence and advisory services.

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Conjunctural indicators for the Eurozone in June 2022

The PMI Composite Index reached 52 in June, the lowest level since February 2021. This suggests a marked slowdown in economic activity at the end of Q2.

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Is the ECB getting it right?

After Christine Lagarde announced a few days ago a substantial increase in interest rates (0,5%) and an anti-fragmentation mechanism - so called TPI - to prevent another debt crisis, we've asked Raymond Torres, Funcas Europe Director, to explain the main drivers behind this important decision. Don't miss our latest podcast.

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The ECB’s policy conundrum

Higher and more persistent than expected inflation disrupted the ECB’s initial forward guidance from late 2021. As the ECB pivots to unwind stimulus more aggressively to tame inflation, it must minimize fragmentation risk and the disruption of monetary policy transmission across eurozone financial markets.

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Are we safe from another housing market crash?

As economic prospects deteriorate sharply, there are questions about what will happen to the real estate sector and the housing market. Are we safe from the bubble burst nightmare days that we suffered during the global financial crisis a little over a decade ago?

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El dilema de la política monetaria del BCE

El Banco Central Europeo (BCE) se enfrenta a un verdadero dilema, al intensificar el ritmo de retirada de los estímulos monetarios para hacer frente a una inflación desbocada, al tiempo que evita el riesgo de fragmentación de los mercados financieros de la eurozona y de una disrupción potencial del mecanismo de transmisión de la política monetaria.

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How to deal with stagflation

Back in the 70s developed economies were particularly hit by rising prices and low economic growth. There were two oil crises, currency turmoil and rising unemployment. Inflation reached 15% in the US in 1980.

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The Impact of the global food crisis and the potential policy answers

As the war in Ukraine has now gone on for over 100 days, its global economic consequences are becoming more and more visible and represent quite a concern for policymakers.

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Conjunctural indicators for the Eurozone in May 2022

The euro-zone economy started 2022 on a weak note but the improving health situation suggests that growth will pick up over the rest of the quarter. The PMI-HIS Markit Composite output index of the Eurozone in January reached 52,3. Pointing to the weakest increase in business activity since the headline index moved back into growth territory last March.

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State guarantee programs helping businesses through Covid and the Ukraine crisis

Today we are covering how State guarantee programs have played a key role to support businesses during Covid and what are the broader implications of these programs for our economies.

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Responses to the energy crisis: The cases of Germany, France, Italy and Spain

The emergency measures rolled out in Germany, Spain, France and Italy to mitigate the
impact of the war in Ukraine provide a short-term solution to the budding energy crisis.
However, their long-term efficacy is questionable, and they also exacerbate tensions
between inflation-curbing targets and energy model transformation ambitions, highlighting
the importance of formulating a big-picture plan to transition away from the recent measures
towards a long-term, sustainable energy strategy.

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Digitalización financiera en la pospandemia: ¿qué ha cambiado?

La pandemia ha acelerado significativamente el proceso de digitalización financiera: según la encuesta online de ODF-Funcas, el 36 % de los clientes bancarios accede actualmente todos o casi todos los días a la banca online, frente al 17 % de antes de la pandemia.

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Crisis energética: las respuestas de Alemania, España, Francia e Italia

El artículo realiza una revisión de los planes de choque puestos en marcha en los principales países de la UE para afrontar el incremento exponencial de los precios energéticos tras la invasión de Ucrania.

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Can Europe win the semiconductors global race?

Today we are here to cover the global battle for the production of semiconductors and whether Europe has a real plan to lead in this area.

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How should policymakers deal with the economic impact of the energy crisis?

This week we are covering Europe’s mounting public debt. There is widespread agreement that EU governments had to act quickly and massively in response to the crisis.

Artículo

Newsletter: How is Ukraine's war affecting the Russian and European economies?

It's been over one month since Russia started the invasion of Ukraine. Since the 24th of February, the EU, together with key allies such as the UK, the US and others, have approved up to five rounds of sanctions against Russia, targeting some of its most critical sectors but leaving - at least for now - gas and oil outside of the equation.

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EMU peripheral sovereign debt: Resilience in the face of monetary policy and geopolitical risks

Looming ECB policy normalisation will likely lead to the rebalancing of relative prices for EMU peripheral sovereign debt. Nonetheless, improved economic fundamentals, the ECB’s commitment to preventing fresh episodes of financial fragmentation and favourable prospects for European integration should help reduce the risk of episodes of intense stress in the eurozone sovereign debt markets.

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Deuda de la periferia de la UEM ante la potencial retirada de estímulos monetarios y la crisis geopolítica

El cambio de tercio que se inicia en la política monetaria del BCE vendrá acompañado de un reequilibrio en el precio relativo de la deuda soberana de los países de la periferia.

Artículo

Newsletter: The impact of sanctions against Russia

Today we are back to cover sanctions, perhaps the word that's been pronounced the most in the EU political corridors over the last few weeks.

Artículo

Newsletter: Economic and energy implications of Ukraine's war

Sadly the crisis in Ukraine has turned into an actual war. Russia started a few days ago a full scale invasion of the country, and we are witnessing one of the most significant armed conflicts in Europe since the II World War.

Artículo

Conjunctural indicators for the Eurozone in January

The euro-zone economy started 2022 on a weak note but the improving health situation suggests that growth will pick up over the rest of the quarter. The PMI-HIS Markit Composite output index of the Eurozone in January reached 52,3. Pointing to the weakest increase in business activity since the headline index moved back into growth territory last March.

Artículo

La política monetaria y la pandemia: claves del debate actual

La pandemia de la COVID-19 marcará un antes y un después en el entorno y el desarrollo de la política monetaria del BCE. Este artículo comienza por repasar y valorar de forma conci­sa las principales medidas de política monetaria instrumentadas para hacer frente al impacto económico de la pandemia. Tras ello, el análisis trata de enmarcar el debate sobre dos de los retos a los que el BCE habrá de hacer frente en los próximos años. En primer lugar, deberá de prepararse para normalizar los tipos y la com­posición de su balance, minimizando el impac­to sobre la estabilidad financiera y resistiendo las presiones para que retrase el necesario ajuste.

Artículo

La política monetaria en la eurozona ante la COVID-19

En este artículo se describe la rápida, flexi­ble y eficaz actuación del BCE y sus efectos sobre la estabilidad financiera de la eurozo­na, como respuesta a la COVID-19.

Artículo

Newsletter: The key economic challenges facing the EU in 2022

This week we are revisiting the topic with concrete ideas on how the new rules should actually take shape.

Artículo

Recovering from the pandemic: The role of the macroeconomic policy mix

A new emphasis on policy coordination to mitigate the economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic led to a faster than expected European economic recovery, particularly compared to the Global Financial Crisis. However, policy coordination is still a challenge and will require a clear understanding of an unfamiliar economic context, together with strong agreement among European policymakers.

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Recuperándose de la pandemia: el papel del mix de políticas macroeconómicas

El mix de políticas económicas, basado principalmente en la interacción de las políticas monetaria y fiscal, ha desempeñado un papel esencial en promover la recuperación económica de Europa durante la pandemia, habiéndose visto reforzado por un ambicioso programa fiscal a nivel europeo como representa el Plan de Recuperación Next Generation EU.

Artículo

Newsletter: What to expect from the world economy in 2022

This week we are revisiting the topic with concrete ideas on how the new rules should actually take shape.

2021

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Newsletter: Why the EU needs a green golden rule

This week we are revisiting the topic with concrete ideas on how the new rules should actually take shape.

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Newsletter: Making fiscal rules friendly to public investment

This week we are revisiting the topic with concrete ideas on how the new rules should actually take shape.

Artículo

Newsletter: The EU needs new fiscal rules

This week we are taking a close look at what happened at the UN COP26 Glasgow summit. Are we going in the right direction in the fight against climate change after this important event?

Artículo

Newsletter: Fight against climate change gets reinforced after Glasgow

This week we are taking a close look at what happened at the UN COP26 Glasgow summit. Are we going in the right direction in the fight against climate change after this important event?

Artículo

Conjunctural indicators for the Eurozone in October 2021

The main short-term indicators suggest the euro-zone’s economic recovery might slow markedly in Q4, as supply shortages intensified, which caused a slowdown in manufacturing and service sectors.

Artículo

Newsletter: Why are labour shortages a serious challenge for recovery?

This week we are touching on the issue of labour shortages, a challenge that is affecting most advanced economies and that could complicate recovery after the pandemic.

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Conjunctural indicators for the Eurozone in September 2021

The main short-term indicators, notably PMIs, suggest phase, though still strong is losing momentum as as supply shortages take their toll, especially in manufacturing

Artículo

Newsletter: Can the energy crisis put at risk the green agenda?

This week we are covering the energy price crisis. This is a subject that is very concerning as many fear we are approaching an expensive winter.

Artículo

The ECB’s new look

The results of the ECB’s monetary strategy review announced in July suggest Christine Lagarde has succeeded in her promise to transform how the ECB works and how it communicates with the outside world. However, her first real test will come as the Bank begins to unwind its unconventional monetary policy instruments.

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Newsletter: German elections: what it means for Europe

This week we are focusing on the results of the German election. The stakes are obviously high for Germans, but also for Europe as a whole. It’s no secret the weight that the future German government will have on the EU’s key economic discussions.

Artículo

El nuevo look del BCE

El Banco Central Europeo (BCE) anunció en julio los resultados de la revisión de su estrategia de política monetaria. Como aspecto destacado, el Consejo de Gobierno ha definido un objetivo de inflación simétrico del 2 %. No obstante, la forma en que los responsables de la política monetaria reaccionan ante las desviaciones de su objetivo no es simétrica.

Artículo

Plan de Recuperación, Transformación y Resiliencia de España en el marco de los fondos europeos (16 de abril de 2021)

Al abordar la descripción de los fondos europeos es necesario diferenciar dos grandes paquetes: Marco Financiero Plurianual. Ciclo ordinario de fondos europeos que se fija a siete años. Aquí se circunscriben los fondos FEDER, horizonte Europa,…, y el bloque de recursos vinculados al Fondo Europeo de Recuperación. España recibirá 150.000 millones de euros por este concepto.

Artículo

Conjunctural indicators for the Eurozone August 2021

The main short-term indicators, notably PMIs, suggest that the recovery gathered momentum in the last few months. In August, the PMI-IHS Markit Composite Output Index of the Eurozone reached 59, slightly below the level of July (60,2), which marked the highest value since June 2006. This suggests that the Eurozone private sector is growing at its fastest rate for the last two decades, underpinned by increasing levels of output in both manufacturing and services sectors.

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Newsletter: Europe’s economic risks after the summer

This week we are taking a look at Europe’s main economic risks. What are the main concerns for policymakers as they come back to their office after the summer break? We’ve hosted a podcast conversation with Raymond Torres, Funcas Europe Director, and Carlos Carnicero Urabayen, Future is blue editorial coordinator.

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Newsletter: Addressing climate change: Fit for 55 proposals and challenges

We start the new course with a video interview about the Fit for 55 Commission proposal, the legislative roadmap to trigger a green transformation in Europe and meet the target of cutting greenhouse emissions by 55% in 2030. Our editorial coordinator Carlos Carnicero Urabayen has interviewed Lara Lázaro, Senior Analyst at Elcano Royal Institute. More on this below.

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New era, new strategy: the ECB’s revised approach to monetary policy

On 8 July 2021, the European Central Bank revealed its revised monetary policy strategy. It had been a long time coming: the previous strategy had been in place for eighteen years and even then had not changed much from the original strategy agreed in October 1998, just prior to the launch of monetary union. A review to be concluded by the end of 2020 had been announced in January 2020, but was extended in April 2020, because of the pandemic, until the second semester of 2021.

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Spain´s recovery plan: strengths and challenges

Spain is one of the countries which has most to gain from Next Generation EU, the key European-wide blueprint intended to kick-start the recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. For decades, particularly since the debt crisis of 2010, many of us demanded a comprehensive reform package to modernise the economy. Such a plan is now available and was endorsed by the European Commission on the 16th June.

Artículo

PREVISIONES ECONÓMICAS PARA LA ZONA EURO, 2021-22

Previsiones económicas para la zona euro, 2021-2022

[a] Contribución al crecimiento del PIB.
Fuente: Eurostat y Funcas (previsiones).

Descargar (formato pdf)

Artículo

Conjunctural indicators for the Eurozone June 2021

The main short-term indicators, notably PMIs, suggest that the recovery gathered momentum in the second quarter In June, the PMI-IHS Markit Composite Output Index of the Eurozone reached 59,5, leaving the index at its highest index level since June 2006.

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Newsletter: Video-talk: Global economic recovery from the Covid crisis

This week we are covering the prospects for a global recovery from the Covid crisis. We have reached out to Professor Karnit Flug, Vice President of Research and Willian Davidson Senior Fellow for Economic Policy at the Israel Democracy Institute, to discuss current trends.

Artículo

Spain's business demographics post-COVID-19: An initial assessment

While the effect of COVID-19 on Spanish business demographics has been unprecedented, it has also been unequal, with certain sectors hit harder or recovering faster than others.

Artículo

The resilience of Spain's manufacturers in the face of COVID-19

In comparison with peer countries, Spain’s manufacturing output held up relatively well amidst a historic contraction in GDP.

Artículo

Newsletter: The awakening of inflation

This week we are talking about inflation. The advanced economies have experienced remarkably low levels of inflation over the last decades. Now things are changing, and policymakers and central bankers are keeping a close look at it on both sides of the Atlantic.

Artículo

Vaccines: A serious warning to EU

It happens that we aren’t sure what’s happening." Ortega y Gasset’s paradoxical axiom serves as a guide in this EU hour where the vaccination of the population, -a critical factor for success (and survival) in the face of the pandemic-, reveals the Union’s poor performance.

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Newsletter: Final countdown for the recovery funds to be released

This week we are covering the Spanish recovery plan to fully understand how the Spanish government is working to take full advantage of the EU Next Generation programme.

Artículo

The post Covid-19 new normal, a time for the decidedly abnormal: an opportunity for modern monetary theory?

With governments daily announcing ever more extensive economic support packages, fiscal and other rules discarded, and monetary policy about as easy as it could conceivably be, the macroeconomic paradigm prevailing across Europe has been transformed. The questions now are what next and how will matters evolve as the Covid-19 economic crisis abates? A much-discussed answer has been modern monetary theory (MMT), an approach to macroeconomic policymaking that had already gained considerable traction prior to the pandemic.

Artículo

Ratification of the EU Own-Resources Decision: what is the state of affairs?

The EU regulation governing the Recovery and Resilience Fund, which came into force in February, commits member states to submitting national recovery and resilience plans by the end of April. The European Commission will then have two months to evaluate the plans, which the Council is expected to approve by the end of July.

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Newsletter: Spain pushes ahead with Covid recovery plan while funds are delayed

This week we are covering the Spanish recovery plan to fully understand how the Spanish government is working to take full advantage of the EU Next Generation programme.

Artículo

Eurozone PMIs in March 2021

This month the IHS Markit Composite Output Index of the Eurozone increased by 4,4 points, thus leaving the index at an eight-month high. With a final value of 53,2, the Eurozone recorded a return to growth for the first time since October.

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Newsletter: The surge in commodity prices and European recovery prospects

Since the start of the year, the world economy is witnessing a significant increase in a wide range of commodity prices as well as lags in the delivery key inputs, such as semi-conductors.

Artículo

State aid to enterprises in France, Germany, Italy and Spain

One of the most worrying consequences of the crisis generated by the pandemic is the deterioration of the financial situation of European companies.

Artículo

Newsletter: The risks and opportunities of state aid to fight the Covid crisis

This week we are covering state aid, a policy instrument that is becoming more and more critical as the pandemic is hitting the EU economies for longer than expected. We’ve had a video discussion between Peter Bofinger, Professor for Monetary and International Economics at Würzburg University, hosted by Future is blue editorial coordinator Carlos Carnicero Urabayen.

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Eurozone fiscal reform in light of Covid-19: a review of existing proposals

The European Commission recently issued a communication to EU member states to clarify its medium-term fiscal policy stance

Artículo

Eurozone PMIs in February 2021

Even though the IHS Markit Composite Output Index of the Eurozone demonstrated a slower rate of contraction, shifting from 47,8 in January to 48,8 in February, the indicator remains below the no-change mark of 50 for the fourth consecutive month. In addition, the latest data suggests a sustained two-speed economy with a manufacturing and service sector that keep moving further apart.

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Newsletter: Italy's economic prospects under Mario Draghi?s leadership

This week we are covering Italy’s economic prospects under the new leadership of Mario Draghi. We’ve recorded a podcast discussion with Orsola Costantini, Economic affairs officer at UNCTAD, hosted by Carlos Carnicero Urabayen, Future is blue editorial coordinator.

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How to deal with Europe's mounting public debt?

This week we are covering Europe’s mounting public debt. There is widespread agreement that EU governments had to act quickly and massively in response to the crisis.

Artículo

Newsletter: Impact of vaccine delays on Europe's economy

This week we are having a closer look at the impact of vaccine delays on Europe’s economy. Don’t miss our podcast where Christian Odendahl, Chief Economist at the Centre for European Reform, and myself respond to questions from Brussels journalist Carlos Carnicero Urabayen. More details below.

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Eurozone PMIs in January 2021

The IHS Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index reached 47,8 in January, well into negative territory and down from 49,1 the month before.

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The coming debate about European macroeconomic policy

The debate over the deactivation of the ‘general escape clause’ highlights the tension between the need for active fiscal stimulus and fiscal sustainability.

Artículo

El debate que viene sobre la política macroeconómica europea

Las conversaciones en el seno de la Comisión Europea sobre la posible desactivación de la cláusula general de salvaguardia podrían iniciarse dentro de unos pocos meses, aunque si las consecuencias económicas de la pandemia continúan agravándose, es muy posible que sean pospuestas.

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Newsletter: Europe’s response to COVID economic crisis

This week we are covering what to expect for the European economy in 2021.

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How could the ECB exit QE?

In December 2020, the ECB decided to continue its regular Asset Purchase Programme and the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme for at least another year. By the end of 2021, the ECB may have accumulated close to 5 trillion euros worth of bonds on its balance sheet.

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Eurozone PMIs in December 2020

The Eurozone composite PMI for December points to a contraction of activity for the second consecutive month, with an overall drop in demand and new orders.

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Newsletter: Light at the end of the tunnel, but still major hurdles ahead

On our side, we have prepared this first newsletter of 2021 looking ahead to try understand what will matter the most over the next few months.

2020

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Newsletter: Europe in a post-pandemic world

This week we are very pleased to share with you a new podcast, the first of more to come about Europe’s economic and policy-related challenges. We hope that over the next months we will bring new ideas for a more inspiring debate about Europe.

Artículo

Completing the banking union: the key role of the resolution backstop

As part of the debate on the impact of the EU recovery plan, a lot of emphasis has been put on the low absorption rate of EU cohesion funds.

Artículo

La respuesta de la política monetaria del Banco Central Europeo frente a la crisis de la COVID-19

Este documento revisa las diferentes medidas de política monetaria adoptadas por el BCE desde la irrupción de la pandemia

Artículo

Eurozone PMIs in November 2020

As predicted by the IHS Markit analysis of September, the Composite Output PMI for the Eurozone shrunk again in October, namely from a 50.4 to a plain 50.

Artículo

Plan de Recuperación para Europa: principales elementos e implicaciones para España (16 de octubre de 2020)

El contexto de partida está marcado por la crisis sin precedentes en tiempos de paz originada por la COVID–19, que está sacudiendo los cimientos económicos, institucionales y sociales en Europa.

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Newsletter: Brexit: there is still reason for optimism that a deal can be done this week

This week we are covering the fiscal situation of Spain. Santiago Lago Peñas,Professor of Applied Economics and Director of the Governance and Economics (University of Vigo), has recently published a report with worthy insights on the impact of the pandemic on Spain’s public finances and the way forward to reduce its public deficit.

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The NGEU recovery package in Spain: Structural challenges and proposal analysis

While the Next Generation EU (NGEU) recovery package was launched to counteract the economic ramifications of COVID-19, its success will depend on reversing the divergence between the economic performance of Spain and the EU, which pre-dates the crisis.

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Newsletter: The Spanish economy and the second wave of the pandemic

This week we are covering new insights on the health of the Spanish economy. A freshly published report by Funcas brings some new light on how Spain was doing before the pandemic in comparison to other EU Member States and what are the opportunities to relaunch the economy next year by taking advantage of EU funds.

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What the absorption of structural funds says about the EU recovery plan

As part of the debate on the impact of the EU recovery plan, a lot of emphasis has been put on the low absorption rate of EU cohesion funds.

Artículo

Newsletter: Vaccines: an intense economic rebound is around the corner

This week we are talking about the coveted COVID-19 vaccine. Recent news on different trials showing effectivity of about 90% are understandably generating huge expectations for the recovery of our lives and pockets.

Artículo

PMIs October 2020

As predicted by the IHS Markit analysis of September, the Composite Output PMI for the Eurozone shrunk again in October, namely from a 50.4 to a plain 50.

Artículo

Newsletter: Bidenomics, reducing US internal divisions while sustaining international economic leadership

This week we are covering the US elections. I've published an article with Juan Moscoso del Prado, Director of Global Affairs at Deusto Business School, where we argue that Biden’s biggest challenge will be to reduce the US internal divisions while keeping the US international economic leadership. I've included some of our main points below.

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Where TLTRO III may be going

The ECB’s Targeted Long-Term Refinancing Operations, or TLTRO, are non-standard monetary policy measures adopted in the aftermath of the Eurozone banking crisis.

Artículo

Newsletter: A Brexit agreement is in sight

This week we are covering the just announced budget proposal for 2021 presented by the Spanish government. In a nutshell: its expansionist nature goes in the right direction but some forecasts in it seem quite optimistic.

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Newsletter: The real issue is whether Spain can wait until the European funds become available?

This week we are analysing why Spain may not apply for an EU loan under the Next Generation EU programme. Before we get into details, let me advance that current borrowing costs are so low that incentives for extra borrowing under the new programme are missing. Other countries may face the same situation.

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Newsletter: IMF economic outlook and lessons learned to fight Coronavirus

The IMF is bringing a more positive perspective for 2020 for most advanced economies. Global output would fall by 4.4% compared to 5.2% as anticipated during the summer. Interestingly, the IMF is not broadly embracing austerity as the right answer, as it did 10 years ago. The shock for the eurozone in 2020 is now expected to be 1,9% milder, but the perspective for Spain is not getting any better (the IMF expects a decline of 12,8% GDP.) We hope you enjoy the video.

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Eurozone PMIs in September 2020

As explained in a previous note (1), the European Commission’s Next Generation EU recovery plan foresaw member states submitting national recovery and resilience plans by April 30 as annexes to their national reform plans.

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An analysis of the European Commission’s guidelines on the recovery fund

As explained in a previous note (1), the European Commission’s Next Generation EU recovery plan foresaw member states submitting national recovery and resilience plans by April 30 as annexes to their national reform plans.

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Newsletter: how can Spain take full advantage of the recovery plan?

Pazos Vidal has given us an assessment of what we know so far about Spain's recovery plan. Don't miss the video-interview where he covers the challenge of successfully absorbing EU funds, involving coordination between regional and central governments and reforming the public administration.

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The state of play on Banking Union

The Covid-19 pandemic has drastically changed the agenda of the European Union. Managing the associated economic crisis and the recovery have become the most important items.

Artículo

EU recovery fund: timetable and links with eurozone governance

At its latest meeting on September 9-10, the ECB Governing Council took no monetary policy actions, despite the surprise drop in eurozone inflation in August and the rise in the euro’s exchange rate

Artículo

The ECB’s decision to maintain its policy stance despite falling inflation: a comment

At its latest meeting on September 9-10, the ECB Governing Council took no monetary policy actions, despite the surprise drop in eurozone inflation in August and the rise in the euro’s exchange rate

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The EU recovery plan: funding arrangements and their impacts

The European Council of July 17-21 agreed on a €750bm Covid-19 recovery plan. This was part of a political agreement on the next EU budget

Artículo

The EU recovery fund: strengths and limitations

The recovery fund dominated the agenda of last weekend’s European Council, which also agreed on the EU’s 2021-2027 multiannual financial framework or “EU budget”.

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How to make Next Generation EU a success for the economy?

The package agreed by European leaders after five days of intense debate is a major step forward for the political integration of the EU.

Artículo

Spain and the European Recovery Plan

OECD forecasts indicate that Spain is one of the countries most impacted by COVID-19.

Artículo

España y el Plan Europeo de Recuperación

El Plan Europeo de Recuperación junto con el programa de compra de activos del Banco Central Europeo configuran los dos ejes principales de la respuesta de la Unión Europea ante la crisis económica derivada del COVID-19.

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The Eurogroup at the epicentre of crisis responses

One of the most powerful bodies which, along with the ECB, will determine the extent to which Europe will overcome the economic crisis which erupted as a result of the Covid-19 pandemics is not a well-established institution, but an informal club, namely the Eurogroup.

Artículo

‘Bringing it all back home’: a short-term necessity or the start of a long-run change in economic relations?

Texto introductorio que aparecerá en los listados.

Artículo

El plan europeo de recuperación: ¿impulso fiscal o política de oferta?

La crisis del COVID-19 ha impactado con una virulencia extraordinaria sobre la sociedad y la economía españolas.

Artículo

Previsiones económicas de Funcas para la eurozona 2018-2019

Previsiones económicas de Funcas para la eurozona 2018-2019

[a] Contribución al crecimiento del PIB.
Fuente: Dirección de Coyuntura y Estadística de Funcas (www.funcas.es); Haver Analytics.

Artículo

Overcoming the Covid-19 crisis through credit guarantees: rationale and risks

Since the start of the Covid-19 crisis there has been a heated debate regarding the use of government guarantees in order to support lending to the private sector.

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Covid-19 credit guarantees in the eurozone

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Averting a prolonged economic crisis stemming from Covid-19

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Spanish economic policy in response to Covid-19

Artículo

The ECB’s response to the Covid-19 crisis

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The ECB’s response to the Covid-19 crisis

Artículo

Internationalisation of the euro

Artículo

The climate change challenge for the Spanish economy

Artículo

Post-crisis money markets, monetary policy and financial stability

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Visions 2020

2019

Artículo

The economic agenda of the new Commission

Artículo

COP25: The business case

Artículo

Banking union: Strengths and contradictions of the German proposal

Artículo

Tres debates en torno a la política monetaria europea

El intenso debate sobre la prolongación de la política monetaria acomodaticia del Banco Central Europeo (BCE) se centra alrededor de tres cuestiones principales: las contingencias negativas a las que debe hacer frente dicha política, la transmisión de la política monetaria a la economía real y la co.

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The potential impacts of changes to the ECB’s deposit facility

Artículo

Previsiones económicas de Funcas para la eurozona 2017-2018

Desde el inicio del año, la economía de la eurozona ha acelerado su recuperación. Los indicadores de actividad y de confianza de los consumidores han repuntado, mejorando ligeramente los niveles anteriores a la crisis.

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Indicadores económicos de Funcas para la eurozona 2017-2018

Indicadores económicos de Funcas para la eurozona 2017-2018

The eurozone economic recovery has accelerated since the start of the year. Activity and consumer confidence indicators have spiked, slightly outperforming pre-crisis levels (Exhibit 1). Meanwhile, international trade flows both within the eurozone and with third countries have increased, in line with the recovery in global markets. GDP grew by 0.6% in the first quarter and 1.9% relative the same quarter of 2016 (Table 1). All countries in the single currency saw a pick-up in growth compared to the last quarter of 2016.

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Spanish public debt holdings at the end of the ECB’s purchase programme

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Ciclos económicos y clusters regionales en Europa

El análisis de los ciclos económicos de las regiones europeas pone de relieve la existencia de importantes asimetrías que dan lugar a la configuración de distintos caracterizados por patrones de comportamiento diferentes.

Artículo

Estabilidad de precios, forward guidance y construcción de la unión monetaria

Los esfuerzos del Banco Central Europeo (BCE) en aras de la integración monetaria y de potenciar las indicaciones prospectivas (forward guidance) de política monetaria tienen por objeto mejorar el funcionamiento de la unión económica y monetaria.

2018

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The 2018 EU stress tests: A behind-thescenes analysis

Artículo

Las implicaciones macroeconómicas y sobre el sector bancario de la política monetaria del BCE

ES:
Este artículo revisa brevemente la actuación del BCE desde mediados de 2014, cuando la autoridad monetaria inició una nueva fase de política monetaria expansiva.

Artículo

Retos a los que se enfrentan la Fed y el BCE

ES:
Ahora que las condiciones macroeconómicas se están normalizando a ambos lados del Atlántico, ha llegado el momento de que los bancos centrales desmantelen el arsenal de medidas que han implementado durante los últimos años.

Artículo

La política monetaria en la encrucijada

ES:
En este artículo se revisan las respuestas de la política monetaria a la crisis para, a continuación, discutir su repliegue una vez consolidado el crecimiento y, en concreto, determinar si la falta de tensión inflacionista en Europa debería o no retrasar el cambio de tono de la políti.

2017

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El ciclo económico en Europa

2014

Artículo

Hacia una integración fiscal más eficiente: enseñanzas para Europa de las prácticas de federalismo fiscal

ES:
Este artículo se dedica a discutir las posibles vías de consecución de una mayor integración fiscal. Para ello, se analiza el papel que desempeñan los gobiernos centrales, en el marco de una federación, como órganos encargados de dar forma a las políticas fiscales subnacionales.

Artículo

Elementos clave de la integración fiscal en la zona del euro

ES:
Los modelos de unión fiscal incorporan equilibrios entre mecanismos de compartición de riesgos y, para que sea políticamente aceptable, también reglas e instituciones orientadas a reducir dichos riesgos.

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Los atributos de una unión fiscal en Europa: recursos propios, unión de transferencias y deuda

ES:
En este trabajo se analiza el presupuesto de la actual Unión Europea (UE-27) teniendo presentes los objetivos y funciones propias de la hacienda federal de una unión fiscal avanzada.

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El nuevo marco de gobernanza fiscal europeo

ES:
Como respuesta a la crisis de deuda soberana en la zona del euro, se ha efectuado una reforma profunda de la gobernanza fiscal en la Unión Europea.

Artículo

Competencia fiscal versus armonización fiscal: una revisión de los argumentos

ES:
La competencia fiscal, especialmente en lo relacionado con el impuesto sobre sociedades, es un tema muy debatido en la Unión Europea.

Artículo

Consecuencias de una unión monetaria sin unión fiscal

ES:
La zona del euro no es un Área Monetaria Óptima (AMO), no dispone de estabilizadores automáticos y por lo tanto necesita una unión fiscal para sobrevivir. El Tratado Intergubernamental de Estabilidad Fiscal de 2011 (FC) retrasa más que ayuda a la necesaria unión fiscal.

Artículo

Estabilidad, integración y crisis de la deuda soberana: la historia del euro en tres trilemas

ES:
Trilema (también llamado «trinidad imposible »): elección entre tres opciones favorables, siendo solo dos posibles simultáneamente.

Artículo

¿Es posible una unión monetaria sin unión fiscal y una unión fiscal sin unión política?

ES:
La Gran Recesión ha puesto de relieve las serias deficiencias existentes en el diseño de la unión monetaria. Un área monetaria necesita instituciones monetarias, pero también instituciones fiscales comunes.

Artículo

¿Debe reducirse el exceso de deuda en la eurozona?

Artículo

La Europa social en crisis. Modelo Social Europeo y políticas de austeridad

Artículo

Garantizar la transmisión de las señales de política: una revisión de la política monetaria del BCE desde 2007 hasta 2013

ES:
El artículo explica cómo el BCE, con sus medidas convencionales y no convencionales, cumplió con su mandato de mantener la estabilidad de precios a partir de 2007.

Artículo

Políticas no convencionales virtuales. La recuperación en la zona del euro y el papel de la política del BCE

ES:
Las medidas recientes del BCE se pueden caracterizar como políticas monetarias fuera de balance con la estructura de los contratos derivados. Tales iniciativas pueden tener profundos efectos en los mercados financieros y la economía.

Artículo

Enfrentándose a la baja inflación: las opciones del BCE

ES:
La inflación de la zona del euro es inferior al 1 por 100 desde octubre de 2013, y las expectativas de inflación a medio plazo son muy inferiores al 2 por 100. Los pronósticos de retorno al objetivo de inflación han sido equivocados.

Artículo

Fragmentación financiera y ruptura de la transmisión de la política monetaria en la eurozona

ES:
La crisis financiera y los problemas derivados de su posterior agravamiento, del deterioro de las condiciones fiscales y de la situación de fragilidad de los sistemas bancarios de algunos países europeos, contribuyeron a incrementar el grado de fragmentación de los principales mercado.

2013

Artículo

Unión bancaria: elementos integrantes y medidas complementarias

Artículo

La integración de los sistemas de pago en Europa al amparo de la SEPA. El caso del pago móvil

Artículo

Implicaciones del futuro TAFTA UE-EE.UU., el mayor tratado comercial bilateral de la historia

Nos encontramos ante el proceso de negociación bilateral en materia de comercio internacional más ambicioso de la historia.

Artículo

Implications of the EU-US TTIP: The largest bilateral trade agreement in history

The EU and the US are involved in the most ambitious trade liberalization negotiations process ever witnessed. The road ahead will necessarily require surpassing existing difficulties in a number of relevant issues foreseen on the negotiators’ agendas.

Artículo

Presupuestos de la Unión Europea

2012

Artículo

La crisis de deuda soberana: una perspectiva europea

Artículo

El sistema de ajustes IVA y RNB en la Unión Europea

Artículo

Financing the euro area economy: The role of the Eurosystem

2011

Artículo

Comentarios al Pacto del Euro

2003

Artículo

Una nueva política agraria para una nueva Unión

2002

Artículo

Las regiones europeas y la ampliación de la UE

Artículo

La política monetaria del eurosistema

El objetivo de este artículo es pasar revista a la actuación del BCE desde su creación, cen- trándose en elanálisis del funcionamiento de su estrategia, su política de comunicación, y sus instrumentos y procedimiento de política monetaria.

Artículo

La política de competencia en Europa

El artículo examina el presente y las perspectivas dela política europea de la competencia.

2000

Artículo

La nueva política monetaria del eurosistema

This article describes the four coordinates of the Eurosystem monetary policy -its aim, its strategy, the operating framework and the approach- bearing in mind the essential features denoting the monetary policy of the euro area with regard to any other country's or region's.

Artículo

La UEM y el sistema bancario europeo

This article carries out a review of the main structural and competitive features of the European banking sectors and of the impact caused by EMU.

1995

Artículo

Crecimiento económico, factor residual y convergencia en los países de la Europa Comunitaria

ES:
El trabajo tiene por objeto, en una primera parte, establecer una descomposición del crecimiento económico en los países de la Unión Europea en las tres últimas décadas entre utilización de inputs y factor residual,atendiendo al esquema contable propuesto por Solow.

1993

Artículo

En torno a El reto europeo...., de José Viñals

1992

Artículo

La política pesquera en la CE y en España

1988

Artículo

La política agrícola común y su impacto regional en España

1985

Artículo

La adhesión de España al mercado común agrícola

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