Financial analysis

Financial analysis

Financial and banking regulation and its effects, the competitive structure of the banking sector, the means of payment for business financing and the role of finance in economic growth are some of the aspects discussed in this section.



The recovery of the Spanish mortgage market

Spain’s mortgage market is recovering gradually in the wake of the pandemic, with new transactions outstripping loan repayments. This recovery, however, is very recent, and has not yet consolidated, with lingering and new sources of uncertainty affecting savings and borrowing patterns in ways that are difficult to gauge.


Cost of equity for Spanish and European banks

The banks’ earnings recovery in 2021, and the prospect of rate normalisation in the relatively near future, drove significant growth in the Spanish and European banks’ share prices up until the outbreak of the crisis between Russia and Ukraine injected fresh market volatility. Nevertheless, the perception remains that the banks’ return on equity (ROE) does not sufficiently cover the estimated cost the market attributes to that capital (COE); however, if recent favourable ROE performance is sustainable over time, there could be significant room for upside in bank stock valuations.

Tanto el Banco Central Europeo como la Reserva Federal venían anunciando en los últimos meses un giro en su política monetaria que ahora parece acelerarse por el rápido aumento de los precios. Sin embargo, está por ver qué intensidad tendrán las subidas de tipos anunciadas por la Fed o el fin de los estímulos anticipado por el BCE, y si ambas herramientas serán verdaderamente efectivas en la lucha contra una inflación proveniente del aumento de los costes energéticos. También habrá que lidiar con los efectos de estas políticas sobre el coste de la deuda pública. Lo explica Santiago Carbó.


La inflación obliga a replantear la intensidad de la política monetaria


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