Macroeconomy

Although the global economy has demonstrated significant resilience in recent quarters, key risks related to geopolitical tensions, financial stability and policy mismatches remain, clouding the economic outlook for the medium-term. In the transition to the new normal, the hope is that the global economy will outperform currently lackluster previsions.

The performance of Spain’s labour market has improved, approaching European standards, supported by a mix of reforms and demographic changes. Jobs are now much more resilient to recessionary pressures; yet, two key weaknesses remain, namely the relatively low chances for re-employment for jobseekers, making unemployment relatively persistent, and difficult school-to-work transitions which contribute to nurturing high youth under-employment.

Labour demand in Spain appears to have weathered the effects of the pandemic, as evidenced by sustained growth in job postings, despite a more significant initial drop in hiring compared to other countries in 2020. This, together with other trends, appears to support part of the recent acceleration in Spanish wage growth, underpinning a solid forecast for employment and GDP growth in 2024 relative to other advanced economies.