Macroeconomía

The ceasefire between the United States and Iran pushed oil and gas prices closer to
pre-conflict levels, easing inflationary pressures on the Spanish economy. However,
the withdrawal of fuel tax relief and persistently high services inflation mean that overall inflation will normalize more slowly than energy markets.

On 11 June 2026, the ECB became the first major central bank to raise policy rates in
response to inflation pressures stemming from the war in the Middle East, reversing a
cut made one year earlier. The decision reflects a deliberate shift toward discretionary
policymaking, driven less by current data than by the risk that firms and households
begin embedding higher inflation into wages, prices, and contracts before evidence
emerges that inflation expectations have become de-anchored.