Banca

The monetary policy roadmap for 2023 will continue to prioritize the fight against inflation, with successive official rate increases at least for much of the year, although accompanied by a slower increase in EURIBOR. Within this context, the banks will continue to play a key role in credit provision to the economy, yet while they could face improved income prospects, notable challenges exist within the prevailing uncertain climate.

Tension in the corporate bond market since the start of the inflationary spiral towards the
end of last year has driven a sharp increase in secondary market rates, as well as a sharp contraction in primary market issuance, forcing many corporates back to the bank financing channel they had previously abandoned. Nonetheless, rather than seeing this development
as a setback, it reflects the complimentary rather than substitutive nature of bank and
market corporate financing, with the banks acting as a back-up option when the bond markets are temporarily unable to finance the productive apparatus.

The weight of bancassurance in Spain´s insurance business and its contribution to parent banks’ domestic earnings are very significant. As a result, as evidenced by the recent COVID-19 crisis, as well as in normal times, the relatively substantial contribution of the
bancassurance business lends earnings stability and solidity to the banks with the most developed such businesses.