Articles

The Spanish economy is expected to grow by 2.5% in 2024 and another solid 1.8% next year, continuing to outpace the European average by a considerable margin. The favourable external competitiveness position is a key factor behind this performance; nonetheless, corporate and housing investment continue to lag pre-pandemic levels, undermining potential output, while the high structural public deficit increases vulnerability to geopolitical and financial risks.

Este artículo realiza un análisis de las previsiones de crecimiento de la
economía española para 2024 y 2025.

Compared to its European peers, the Spanish economy has weathered the inflationary storm and geopolitical tensions of recent years relatively well, buoyed by its strong competitive positioning. In the near-term, however, a slowdown is anticipated in light of the weak external environment and contractionary turn in macroeconomic policy, with fiscal dynamics remaining a key vulnerability.

Este artículo ofrece previsiones económicas destacando que, para el conjunto del 2023, se prevé un crecimiento del PIB sin cambios con respecto a la anterior previsión, pero mejor de lo anticipado a principios del pasado año.

GDP growth is expected to slow to 1.5% in 2024, down 0.9% from this year, although still significantly above the EU average, with inflation also expected to moderate further.
Spain’s key source of vulnerability remains its fiscal imbalance at a time when sovereign borrowing costs are rising sharply, highlighting the need for growth-friendly fiscal consolidation.

La previsión de crecimiento del PIB en 2023 en España se eleva al 2,4 %, dos décimas más que en la anterior previsión, gracias al impulso de la primera parte del año. El crecimiento procederá sobre todo de la demanda interna, destacando el repunte del consumo tanto público como privado.

Despite a weak start to the year and headwinds from high energy prices and double-digit inflation, Spain’s prospects for the next few months remain favourable. However, after the end of the tourism season, the loss of consumers´ purchasing power along with more restrictive financial conditions and geopolitical risks mean growth is expected to slow considerably from the end of 2022.

Informe de la OCDE sobre España Fecha: marzo 1998 Resumen, comentario de Ricardo Cortes Cuadernos de Información Económica, N.º 132 (marzo-abril 1998)