Spain’s sluggish post-pandemic recovery
Fecha: noviembre 2021
Raymond Torres, María Jesús Fernández
Spanish economy
SEFO, Spanish and International Economic & Financial Outlook, V. 10 N.º 6 (November 2021)
Recent indicators point to a bumpy post-COVID-19 recovery for Spain. After
announcing a buoyant initial estimate of 2.8%, Spain’s National Statistics Office, the INE, then slashed its second-quarter GDP growth figure to 1.1%. Furthermore, the preliminary estimate of 2% for the third quarter came in
lower than generally expected. Some statistical oddities surround these numbers: the adverse trend in private consumption contrasts with the pronounced recovery in domestic tourism, while the the collapse in investment in housing is not consistent with the healthy momentum recorded in the property market. In any case, it seems that Spain’s recovery is not as vigorous as predicted: growth is projected to reach 5.1% in 2021, compared to 6.3% in the Summer forecast. This is due to a lower level of private consumption, which is only partially offset by stronger export growth. Inflation, which has eroded household and business purchasing power, may remain relatively high until the Spring.