Spanish economic forecasts for 2022-2023

Spanish economic forecasts for 2022-2023

Fecha: julio 2022

Raymond Torres and María Jesús Fernández

Economic forecasts

SEFO, Spanish and International Economic & Financial Outlook, V. 11 N.º 4 (July 2022)

Despite an extremely modest expansion in the first quarter of the year, Spain’s economy is still expected to grow by 4.2% in 2022. Investment, goods and non-tourism services exports and tourism are expected to drive growth until the third quarter. Thereafter, headwinds related to inflation, high energy prices, geopolitics and more restrictive monetary policy will cause growth to slow significantly. GDP is expected to grow by 2.0% in 2023 (lower than the previous March forecast of around 3.3%). Over the forecast horizon, high and persistent inflation is expected to dampen households’ purchasing power and real consumption. Investment will still be supportive, partly driven by Next Generation EU (NGEU) funds. While the pace of job creation should slow, the unemployment rate could fall below 12% by the end of the projection period. Spain’s balance of payments should remain favourable with strong tourism earnings offsetting rising energy import costs. As growth slows into 2023, household and corporate balance sheets appear to be in a position to sustain higher interest rates, especially when compared to the 2011-2014 financial crisis. Public finances are more vulnerable to the turn in monetary policy. They should remain sustainable if growth continues and deficits are gradually reduced. Risks to growth include geopolitics (war in Ukraine) and higher energy prices, along with monetary tightening and the prospect of fragmentation in eurozone financial markets.

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