Outlook for the Spanish economy in 2024-2025: Navigating an uncertain international backdrop
Fecha: enero 2024
Raymond Torres, María Jesús Fernández and Fernando Gómez Díaz
Spanish economy
SEFO, Spanish and International Economic & Financial Outlook, V. 13 N.º 1 (January 2024)
Compared to its European peers, the Spanish economy has weathered the inflationary storm and geopolitical tensions of recent years relatively well, buoyed by its strong competitive positioning. GDP growth is estimated at 2.4% in 2023, which is nearly two whole points above the eurozone average, with the current account surplus hitting an all-time high. In the near-term, however, a slowdown is anticipated in light of the weak external environment and contractionary turn in macroeconomic policy – both fiscal and monetary. We are forecasting GDP growth of 1.5% in 2024, which is nevertheless above the projection for the European average. Elsewhere, investment in capital goods remains 8.8% below pre-pandemic levels, a trend that does not bode well for productivity in the medium-term and poses a challenge in terms of maximizing the impact of the European funds on the Spanish economy. Lastly, the public deficit is set to remain above the thresholds required by Brussels, even if growth recovers as expected in 2025.