Economic projections for Spain: 2023-2024
Fecha: julio 2023
Raymond Torres and María Jesús Fernández
The energy crisis and war in Ukraine marked the start of a period of uncertainty for the Spanish economy (Torres and Fernandez, 2022). However, the main macroeconomic variables have performed better than most analysts were expecting. This resilience may be attributable to the competitiveness of Spanish exporters, the absence of a property bubble (in contrast to the situation prevailing in many other European economies) and low household indebtedness. In the months ahead, the Spanish economy will be shaped by the disinflation process and monetary policy developments. Overall, despite anticipated cooling, the strong start to the year is expected to leave GDP growth at 2.2% in 2023, up 0.7 points from our last set of forecasts. In 2024, growth is expected to slow to 1.6%, albeit improving as the year unfolds. There are also downside risks, however, especially surrounding the risk of sharper than anticipated monetary tightening. A more pronounced increase in borrowing costs than we are estimating would exacerbate risks in the more vulnerable sectors. Elsewhere, the ECB has warned of vulnerabilities in the finances of the shadow banking system with potential consequences for the European economy. Lastly, the persistence of a high public deficit is a source of vulnerability for the Spanish economy with the European fiscal rules about to come back into play and the ECB withdrawing support in the form of low rates and debt repurchases, a worry with Spain due to step up public debt issuance this year.