The Spanish economy: Recent developments and outlook for 2013-2014
Fecha: abril 2013
Autores: Ángel Laborda, María Jesús Fernández
Etiquetas: Previsiones económicas, Coyuntura económica, Crecimiento económico
Spanish and International Economic & Financial Otlook, SEFO, V. 2 N.º 2
The first few months of 2013 point to an improvement in the advanced economies’ situation, albeit a somewhat uneven one. Emerging economies, which had suffered a marked slowdown in growth in 2012, enjoyed a recovery in the final months of the year. In Spain, GDP growth is expected to remain negative until the third quarter of 2013, when it will start to grow slightly in the final months of the year, and continue to grow moderately over the course of 2014. External financial restrictions have eased in recent months, and major Spanish banking institutions have been able to return to international financial markets, although sporadically and facing high costs. Nevertheless, the effect will not be immediately apparent in the real economy. Domestic credit constraints will continue until institutions complete the restructuring process and are able to fully access international markets on similar terms to institutions in other euro area countries. This means that no easing of financial conditions is likely to be seen until at least the second half of the year.