The outlook for the Spanish economy in the medium term
Fecha: julio 2013
Autores: Guillermo de la Dehesa
Etiquetas: Coyuntura económica, Previsiones económicas, Sostenibilidad financiera, Reformas estructurales, Deuda pública, Deuda privada, Creación de empleo
In this Special Feature, the author provides us with a medium term scenario for the Spanish economy in the context of the prospects for euro area economic performance and integration. Under his base case scenario of continued, slow progress towards euro area banking and fiscal union, the Spanish economy will continue correcting its accumulated imbalances and show improvement in key macroeconomic and fiscal/debt indicators over the coming years. In this article, the author presents us with 12 key factors for consideration as regards the medium term outlook for the Spanish economy, supported by the latest forecasts published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Commission (EC). Findings show that Spain will face key challenges related to the housing market adjustment, public and private debt sustainability, and employment creation. On this last point, the author provides some recommendations for boosting Spanish employment. Ultimately, the assumption is that in the absence of an unexpected shock in Spain, or at the EU level, Spain’s difficulties should be tackled through an improved macroeconomic climate and the implementation of appropriate structural reforms over time.