Growth in Spanish labour demand: Evidence from online job postings
Fecha: marzo 2024
Pawel Adrjan and Reamonn Lydon
Labour demand
SEFO, Spanish and International Economic & Financial Outlook, V. 13 N.º 2 (March 2024)
Spain’s labour demand has demonstrated resilience in the face of the pandemic, as job postings have sustained growth in line with their long-term upward trajectory through February 2024, despite the more significant drop in hiring witnessed at the start of the pandemic compared to other countries. Spanish job postings were up 50% from February 2020 to February 2024. Analysis supports a positive correlation between job posting growth and wage growth: occupations for which job postings have risen more strongly have, on average, seen greater increases in advertised wages between 2019 and 2023. This suggests that at least a part of the recent acceleration in Spanish wage growth may be attributed to the surge in demand for new workers, with other factors, such as the bargaining power of workers and unions, particularly in the context of high inflation and minimum wage increases, likely also playing a significant role. Data from early 2024 indicate a decline in the total stock of job postings in Spain from their peak but the influx of new job postings has continued to rise, suggesting that many employers maintain optimism regarding the near-term economic outlook, as postings reflect hiring intentions. Moreover, job postings remain elevated, both in comparison to historical levels in Spain and current trends in other large European economies, where a gradual slowdown persists. These trends support a forecast for solid employment and GDP growth for Spain in 2024 relative to other advanced economies and serve as a key labour market indicator to monitor as the year unfolds.