Spain: Reduced vulnerability to gas rationing relative to other European countries
Fecha: septiembre 2022
María Romero and Juan Sosa
The “Save Gas for a Safe Winter” plan approved by the European Commission involves a 15% reduction in gas demand between August 1st, 2022, and March 31st, 2023, although some countries, such as Spain, will only face a reduction of 7%. On the productive side, the economic sector most sensitive to a rationing of gas consumption will be industry and, in particular: (i) chemicals and pharmaceuticals; and (ii) the transport and storage sector, which have the greatest direct weight in Spain’s GVA (also in the euro area). From a country perspective, among the large European nations, Germany and Italy are most exposed to this geopolitical risk, while Spain is less sensitive, not only because its industry consumes very little Russian gas, but also because the country´s expected reduction in demand will be lower. In any case, Spain will still be exposed to the risks that this adverse geopolitical environment poses for the coming autumn-winter.