Spain's revised national accounting statistics: Positive and negative takeaways
Fecha: noviembre 2023
María Jesús Fernández
GDP revisions
SEFO, Spanish and International Economic & Financial Outlook, V. 12 N.º 6 (November 2023)
September’s annual revision of Spain’s national accounts data for the years 2020 to 2022 resulted in an upward adjustment to the initial forecast for GDP growth figures for 2021 and 2022, underpinned by substantial revisions to the components of GDP growth. The revised figures show that Spain reached pre-pandemic growth levels in the third quarter of 2022, and not the first quarter of 2023, as previously estimated. Indeed, as of the second quarter of 2023, Spanish GDP was actually 1.8% above the pre-crisis threshold, compared to the 0.4% improvement gleaned from the prior statistics. On the demand side, private consumption played a bigger role in underpinning GDP growth than initially expected. Meanwhile, export performance and investment in capital goods were less supportive than previously anticipated. On the supply side, the manufacturing sector made a stronger contribution than previously thought and wage compensation rose to a higher degree than originally estimated. On the positive side, it is worth highlighting the Spanish manufacturing sector’s strong performance, in particular relative to the eurozone average. On the downside, the weakness observed in investment, in particular capital goods investment, is concerning, especially given Spain’s sizeable funding allocation under the NGEU program.