OFEI

Spanish business profitability has recovered to pre-crisis levels in line with the economic
cycle, but remains deeply uneven across firms, sectors, and regions. Differences in
productivity, firm size, and exposure to competition are some of the factors that explain the disparities in profitability levels.

Spanish NFCs earned modest economic profits averaging 3% of output between 2000
and 2024, fluctuating from 4–5% before the 2008 crisis to near zero after the pandemic.
Investment closely followed the gap between these profits and the user cost of capital,
while the sector shifted toward producing internally rather than buying intermediate goods.

Artificial intelligence promises major efficiency gains but may also reinforce industrial concentration, labor market polarization, and stock market overvaluation. The current AI-driven market boom raises questions about the growing disconnect between technological expectations and real-economy fundamentals.