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Public revenue in Spain: Strong momentum meets demographic headwinds

26 November 2025


Tax receipts continue to surge on the back of job creation, corporate profits, and fiscal drag. Yet, the ageing population is quietly reshaping personal income tax dynamics,
posing long-term sustainability risks.

Autores: Romero Jordán, Desiderio

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Fiscal progress despite budget stalemate: Spain’s deficit contracts amid political gridlock


Despite operating without a new budget for two consecutive years, Spain has made notable progress in fiscal consolidation. Strong tax revenue growth and a buoyant labour
market have offset the political impasse, allowing the deficit and debt ratios to continue falling.

Autores: Lago Peñas, Santiago

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The macroeconomic drivers of fiscal sustainability


Spain’s debt ratio has fallen more than four percentage points since 2019, outperforming most euro area economies thanks to strong growth and favorable financing conditions. Yet demographic headwinds and persistent productivity gaps are emerging as key risks to maintaining long-term fiscal sustainability.

Autores: Fatás, Antonio

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Policy interest rates: The ECB’s strategic pause and medium term outlook


With inflation near target and growth subdued, the ECB has paused after eight rate cuts. The balance between disinflation, wage pressure, and fiscal risk will determine whether stability or tightening comes next.

Autores: Área financiera y digitalización

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The Spanish economy’s growth cycle: Constraints and outlook through 2027


Spain’s economy continues to outperform the eurozone average, driven by robust domestic demand and immigration-fueled job creation. Yet, structural weaknesses in housing, fiscal policy, and private investment pose growing constraints as external
demand fades.

Autores: Fernández, María Jesús, Gómez Díaz, Fernando, Torres, Raymond

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Page 21 of 621

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