Macroeconomy

Six years of rate fluctuation reveal distinct asset-liability management strategies across
Spanish banks. Funding costs drove margin gains during tightening, while asset yields
regained primacy as rates normalised, with significant divergence between SIs and LSIs.

Despite strong growth and unprecedented EU funding, private investment in Spain has
failed to recover to pre-pandemic levels, reflecting a persistent gap between the country’s favourable macroeconomic conditions and corporate investment behaviour. Heightened uncertainty and structural impediments have limited the crowding-in effects of public investment, weakening incentives for firms to commit capital despite supportive financing
conditions.

Artificial intelligence promises major efficiency gains but may also reinforce industrial concentration, labor market polarization, and stock market overvaluation. The current AI-driven market boom raises questions about the growing disconnect between technological expectations and real-economy fundamentals.