Fernández, María Jesús

Spain’s revised national accounting statistics: Positive and negative takeaways

September’s annual revision of Spain’s national accounts data for the years 2020 to 2022 resulted in an upward adjustment to the initially forecast GDP growth figures for 2021 and
2022, underpinned by substantial revisions to the components of GDP growth. While the
revisions reveal a better-than-expected performance of the manufacturing sector, worse
than anticipated investment figures are worrisome in the context of the high degree of potential funding resources available to Spain under Next Generation EU (NGEU).

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Economic projections for Spain: 2023-2024

Despite a period marked by uncertainty, the Spanish economy has remained resilient, outperforming analysts’ expectations. Export performance has been particularly strong; nonetheless, downside risks remain, particularly those related to a sharper than anticipated monetary policy tightening, vulnerabilities in the shadow banking system at the EU level, and the elevated stock of public debt.

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