Fernández, María Jesús

Outlook for the Spanish economy in the face of falling energy prices

The combination of labour market resilience and an easing of inflationary pressures arising
from lower energy prices, coupled with higher than anticipated natural gas storage levels in Europe, means that the economy is likely to perform better than initially thought. Albeit
economic uncertainty weighs heavily on forecasting, in 2024, the Spanish economy is expected to reach pre-pandemic growth levels, with fiscal indicators improving in tandem
with recovery; however, fiscal sustainability will depend on the credibility of the targets set for correcting current imbalances and the transformational nature of the investments financed using the NGEU funds.

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Outlook for the Spanish economy in the wake of the energy crisis

Spanish GDP growth for this year has been revised upwards and is now forecast at a solid 4.5%. Within a context of high uncertainty, underpinned by geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and tighter monetary policy, downside risks are significant and economic weakness will be more tangible in 2023, with inflation possibly easing somewhat, though remaining stubbornly high over the projection period.

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