Fernández, María Jesús

Outlook for Spain’s economy and public finances: 2024-2025

The Spanish economy continues to grow faster than the European average, with growth projections revised upwards for 2024 and 2025 to 3% and 2.1%, respectively. However, fiscal slippage relative to official targets is expected in 2025, requiring the government to introduce approximately 8 billion euros in budget savings to align with official targets – allowing for sustained short-term growth, while increasing confidence and providing space for discretionary spending in the event of future shocks.

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Spanish economic forecasts: 2024-2025

The Spanish economy is expected to grow by 2.5% in 2024 and another solid 1.8% next year, continuing to outpace the European average by a considerable margin. The favourable external competitiveness position is a key factor behind this performance; nonetheless, corporate and housing investment continue to lag pre-pandemic levels, undermining potential output, while the high structural public deficit increases vulnerability to geopolitical and financial risks.

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