CARGA_INICIAL20200528
En este artículo se analiza el papel desempeñado por los avales en la contención de efectos de la guerra en Ucrania, así como una estimación del deterioro latente en las operaciones avaladas, que puede actuar como indicador adelantado de la morosidad a aflorar en el siguiente ejercicio.
The banks’ earnings recovery in 2021, and the prospect of rate normalisation in the relatively near future, drove significant growth in the Spanish and European banks’ share prices up until the outbreak of the crisis between Russia and Ukraine injected fresh market volatility. Nevertheless, the perception remains that the banks’ return on equity (ROE) does not sufficiently cover the estimated cost the market attributes to that capital (COE); however, if recent favourable ROE performance is sustainable over time, there could be significant room for upside in bank stock valuations.
El artículo lleva a cabo una estimación del coste de capital, mediante el contraste entre la rentabilidad obtenida en 2021 y las valoraciones en mercado.
Spanish and European banks’ net interest margins (NIM) are proving highly volatile due to the “volume effect” on credit, as well as the difficulties in layering a negative rates component into funding costs. Going forward, the considerable sensitivity of banks’ NIM could increase in 2022, depending on the level of compliance with TLTRO eligibility benchmarks.