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Europe’s economy has learnt to absorb shocks. Can it become more dynamic and productive?

1 septiembre 2026


Europe enters the autumn in better economic shape than might have been expected only a few months ago. US protectionism, geopolitical instability and another energy shock have all tested an economy that was already struggling with weak productivity and investment.

Autores: Carnicero Urabayen, Carlos


Population ageing and public finances: Spain’s tax revenue gap by 2040

22 julio 2026


A static simulation applying 2040 demographic projections to 2025 household tax data estimates that population ageing alone would reduce Spanish tax revenue by around 3.3% through its impact on personal income tax, social security contributions, and VAT. The decline reflects the shrinking weight of younger and prime working-age households in the population, while immigration can only partially offset the shortfall and depends heavily on household composition and income levels.

Autores: Romero-Jordán, Desiderio

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Spain’s 2025 sector accounts: Strong household balances, weak business investment


Spanish households maintained sound balance sheets in 2025, continuing to generate a net lending surplus even as the savings rate declined and real purchasing power grew only modestly. Non-financial corporations again ran a surplus and saw financial asset revaluations, but business investment remained below pre-pandemic levels, widening a capital gap relative to the eurozone.

Autores: Fernández Sánchez, Mª Jesús

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Loan portfolio profitability: Diversification and bundlingas structural levers


Spanish banks are entering a phase of margin normalisation after rate-driven income growth, with lending showing early signs of recovery across segments. Portfolio composition and the depth of customer relationships are emerging as the primary determinants of sustainable profitability.

Autores: Alberni, Marta, Ciriza, Laura, Rodríguez, María

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Spanish bank exposure to real estate: Structural correction and European comparison


Spain’s banking sector has undergone a structural transformation in its real estate
exposure since the 2008 financial crisis, shifting away from high-risk developer and
construction lending toward a more mortgage-dominated, better-quality loan book. Yet, exposure still exceeds the European average, reflecting deep-rooted home ownership culture rather than renewed speculative excess.

Autores: Maudos, Joaquín

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