Artículos
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Population ageing and public finances: Spain’s tax revenue gap by 2040
22 julio 2026
A static simulation applying 2040 demographic projections to 2025 household tax data estimates that population ageing alone would reduce Spanish tax revenue by around 3.3% through its impact on personal income tax, social security contributions, and VAT. The decline reflects the shrinking weight of younger and prime working-age households in the population, while immigration can only partially offset the shortfall and depends heavily on household composition and income levels.
Autores: Romero-Jordán, Desiderio
Etiquetas: Fiscal sustainability
Spain’s 2025 sector accounts: Strong household balances, weak business investment
Spanish households maintained sound balance sheets in 2025, continuing to generate a net lending surplus even as the savings rate declined and real purchasing power grew only modestly. Non-financial corporations again ran a surplus and saw financial asset revaluations, but business investment remained below pre-pandemic levels, widening a capital gap relative to the eurozone.
Autores: Fernández Sánchez, Mª Jesús
Etiquetas: Non-Financial Accounts
Loan portfolio profitability: Diversification and bundlingas structural levers
Spanish banks are entering a phase of margin normalisation after rate-driven income growth, with lending showing early signs of recovery across segments. Portfolio composition and the depth of customer relationships are emerging as the primary determinants of sustainable profitability.
Autores: Alberni, Marta, Ciriza, Laura, Rodríguez, María
Etiquetas: Banking segments
Spanish bank exposure to real estate: Structural correction and European comparison
Spain’s banking sector has undergone a structural transformation in its real estate
exposure since the 2008 financial crisis, shifting away from high-risk developer and
construction lending toward a more mortgage-dominated, better-quality loan book. Yet, exposure still exceeds the European average, reflecting deep-rooted home ownership culture rather than renewed speculative excess.
Autores: Maudos, Joaquín
Etiquetas: Banking Sector
A new risk taxonomy for European real estate markets
European real estate risks have shifted from credit-driven overheating to structural
supply shortages and affordability stress, with Spain illustrating how household debt
deleveraging and housing scarcity can coexist. Commercial real estate pressures,
climate exposure, and counterproductive regulatory interventions add further layers to
a risk landscape that conventional bubble-focused analysis no longer captures.
Autores: Rodríguez Fernández, Francisco
Etiquetas: Real Estate
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