Articles
Rising interest rates: Initial effects on credit
Rising interest rates are rapidly translating into a considerable increase in borrowing costs, putting a strain on households and companies, which had grown accustomed to exceptionally lax financial conditions. In parallel, the increase in rates is already materializing in the form of some retrenchment in…
TLTRO and bank liquidity in the new rate scenario
The ECB´s targeted longer-term refinancing operations, or TLTROs, were designed to be one of the key mechanisms to keep credit flowing through the banking system to the real economy during the crisis. Beyond the negative impact on banks´ earnings of recent changes to TLTRO terms…
The ECB´s normalisation strategy: Uncertainty and legacies
Autores:
Ezquiaga, Ignacio
The ECB is facing an extraordinary situation in which it is unable to rely on an economic slowdown alone to curb inflation. Only with decisive and swift action on normalisation of both interest rates and its monetary policy toolkit, comprised of legacy long-term liquidity injections…
Social Security budget for 2023
Autores:
Bandrés, Eduardo
While the indexation of contributory pensions constitutes the main driver of Social Security expenditure growth in 2023, an increase in the number of pensioners as well as growth in average pensions could prompt a greater than budgeted expenditure outlay. Although the budgetary deficit for 2023…
An assessment of the main revenue and expenditure figures in the 2023 general state budget
Autores:
Romero Jordán, Desiderio
The 2023 general state budget is underpinned by an optimistic GDP forecast of 2.1%, which would unlock a reduction in the deficit from 5.0% in 2022 to 3.9% in 2023. Nonetheless, positive performance on the revenue side is underpinned mainly by sharp inflation, together with…