Fernández, María Jesús

The conflict in Ukraine and the Spanish economy

The invasion of Ukraine is adding upward pressure to energy markets, which were already the main obstacle to Spain’s recovery before the conflict. The precise effects of the crisis will depend on its scale and duration, but already the projections are for markedly higher inflation, significant cuts in consumer purchasing power and lower economic growt.

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Outlook for the Spanish economy in light of rising inflation

As the COVID-19 pandemic drags on, Spain is grappling with a sharp rise in inflation brought on mainly by higher electricity and energy prices. While inflation is a major risk, we are forecasting continued recovery in 2022, with GDP expected to reach prepandemic levels by the start of 2023, underpinned by the assumption of a slowdown in energy-price inflation beginning in the spring.

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