Articles
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Rising interest rates: Initial effects on credit
30 November 2022
Rising interest rates are rapidly translating into a considerable increase in borrowing costs, putting a strain on households and companies, which had grown accustomed to exceptionally lax financial conditions. In parallel, the increase in rates is already materializing in the form of some retrenchment in lending in Spain, particularly in the mortgage segment.
Autores: Carbó Valverde, Santiago, Rodríguez Fernández, Francisco
Tags: Rising rates
TLTRO and bank liquidity in the new rate scenario
The ECB´s targeted longer-term refinancing operations, or TLTROs, were designed to be one of the key mechanisms to keep credit flowing through the banking system to the real economy during the crisis. Beyond the negative impact on banks´ earnings of recent changes to TLTRO terms in order to better align them with other monetary policy instruments, the European and Spanish banking systems have sufficient liquidity to handle the maturity or prepayment of their TLTRO funds, as well as to meet anticipated credit growth next year, thanks to their excess reserves, evolution of retail deposits and funds, and planned bond market issuance.
Autores: Alberni, Marta, Berges, Ángel, Rodríguez, María
Tags: TLTRO changes
The ECB´s normalisation strategy: Uncertainty and legacies
The ECB is facing an extraordinary situation in which it is unable to rely on an economic slowdown alone to curb inflation. Only with decisive and swift action on normalisation of both interest rates and its monetary policy toolkit, comprised of legacy long-term liquidity injections and asset purchases, can the ECB prove its determination to bring inflation back in line with official targets and anchor inflation expectations.
Autores: Ezquiaga, Ignacio
Tags: Monetary transmission
Social Security budget for 2023
While the indexation of contributory pensions constitutes the main driver of Social Security expenditure growth in 2023, an increase in the number of pensioners as well as growth in average pensions could prompt a greater than budgeted expenditure outlay. Although
the budgetary deficit for 2023 will yet again be covered by state lending, the size of the
contributory shortfall could reach 1.8% of GDP.
Autores: Bandrés, Eduardo
Tags: Social Security
An assessment of the main revenue and expenditure figures in the 2023 general state budget
The 2023 general state budget is underpinned by an optimistic GDP forecast of 2.1%, which would unlock a reduction in the deficit from 5.0% in 2022 to 3.9% in 2023. Nonetheless,
positive performance on the revenue side is underpinned mainly by sharp inflation, together with essentially temporary measures set to take effect in 2023, rather than tax reform, while
expenditure figures are largely structural and also remain sensitive to upcoming decisions on extension of support measures into the coming year.
Autores: Romero Jordán, Desiderio
Tags: Budgetary breakdown
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