Is globalization going into reverse mode? Disruptions in supply chains caused by the Coronavirus lockdowns, together with the war in Ukraine and the economic and trade war that the West is fighting with Russia are more and more seen as evidence of a deglobalization trend. Obviously, the implications of a deglobalizing world are enormous for the world economy and for the EU in particular.
Despite the drop in household income as a result of inflation, the housing market has remained dynamic due to its safe-haven appeal, pent-up savings and abundant financing. This atypical trend may, however, be reaching an inflection point in the face of changing monetary conditions; nonetheless, we are not looking at a market standstill or a major increase in non-performing loans but rather a sharp slowdown of the current expansionary cycle, with the main risk to this baseline scenario stemming from the macroeconomic effects of the energy crisis and a worsening geopolitical context.
Policy responses across Europe to address the energy crisis have obvious similarities, but they also show some relevant differences. Dependencies on Russian gas and the health of public finances to provide state aid are two of several factors that are conditioning how EU Member States are responding individually to this challenge.
En un entorno cada vez más incierto, una de las principales incógnitas radica en el mercado de la vivienda. Se trata de una cuestión clave desde el punto de vista social y para la estabilidad financiera. El sector inmobiliario había tenido un comportamiento sorprendentemente pujante durante la pandemia, alentado por las perspectivas de recuperación y los bajos tipos de interés. Ahora que el riesgo de recesión es más patente se plantea la sostenibilidad de ese dinamismo, cuestión que se trata en el presente artículo.