The uneven age of artificial intelligence
Fecha: mayo 2026
SEFO, Spanish and International Economic & Financial Outlook, V. 15 N.º3 (May 2026)
Index
The conflict in the Middle East has renewed inflationary pressures in Spain through higher energy and commodity prices, further weakening a growth outlook already strained by rising trade tensions. Domestic demand remains strong for now, but a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz would push Europe closer to recession and inevitably also weigh on the Spanish economy.
Spanish goods exports exhibit greater responsiveness to EU trade agreements than those of other member states, with the divergence becoming more pronounced over time. Where trading partners share historical or linguistic ties with Spain, export growth is driven primarily by the intensive margin; where such ties are absent, the expansion of the export basket through the addition of new products plays a comparatively more important role.
The dollar has lost more than 11% of its effective exchange rate value since early 2025, defying the appreciation that would normally accompany higher tariffs. The evolution reflects not just policy uncertainty but a deeper recalibration of the dollar′s role as the anchor of the international financial system.
Private credit has expanded rapidly into segments vacated by banks, emerging as a central pillar of corporate financing within the non-bank ecosystem. Its continued growth, alongside persistent linkages to the banking system, is reshaping the distribution of risk and raising questions about how losses would be absorbed under stress.
Rising geopolitical tensions are increasingly shaping bank valuations, financial conditions, and risk perceptions in global markets. Spanish banks’ high degree of internationalization offers a partial buffer, with geographic diversification helping to stabilize earnings and mitigate exposure to localized shocks.
Since 2016, Solvency II has reinforced solvency, governance and supervisory convergence across the EU, but has also revealed procyclical pressures, an excessive compliance burden on smaller insurers, and constraints on the sector′s capacity to finance long-term productive investment. The review now underway aims to correct these imbalances while preserving the framework′s prudential foundations.
Public debate on AI oscillates between dismissal and alarmism, but both extremes stem from the same misunderstanding: misreading what the technology actually does. Pattern recognition and imitation do not amount to capacity for reasoning or creativity, and that distinction will shape AI’s ultimate impact on jobs and productivity.
AI adoption among EU firms has accelerated rapidly but remains highly uneven, with Scandinavian economies recording adoption rates above 35% compared with single digits in parts of Southern and Eastern Europe. Persistent gaps in economic development, research capacity, and workplace digitalisation help explain this divergence, with potentially significant implications for long-term productivity convergence across the bloc.
AI adoption among Spanish firms rose from 12.4% to 21.1% between 2023 and 2025, concentrated in sectors where exposure to automation is already highest. While the distributional consequences fall disproportionately on mid-level white-collar workers, reversing earlier displacement patterns, Spain’s position at a historic employment peak offers an opportunity to manage this transition from a position of relative strength.