En este artículo, tras un breve repaso de las tendencias recientes, se presentan las perspectivas económicas hasta 2023.
Is globalization going into reverse mode? Disruptions in supply chains caused by the Coronavirus lockdowns, together with the war in Ukraine and the economic and trade war that the West is fighting with Russia are more and more seen as evidence of a deglobalization trend. Obviously, the implications of a deglobalizing world are enormous for the world economy and for the EU in particular.
Despite the drop in household income as a result of inflation, the housing market has remained dynamic due to its safe-haven appeal, pent-up savings and abundant financing. This atypical trend may, however, be reaching an inflection point in the face of changing monetary conditions; nonetheless, we are not looking at a market standstill or a major increase in non-performing loans but rather a sharp slowdown of the current expansionary cycle, with the main risk to this baseline scenario stemming from the macroeconomic effects of the energy crisis and a worsening geopolitical context.