The impact of the Middle East conflict on the Spanish economy
Spanish economy
Fecha: mayo 2026
Raymond Torres, María Jesús Fernández and Fernando Gómez Díaz
SEFO, Spanish and International Economic & Financial Outlook, V. 15 N.º 3 (May 2026)
The conflict in the Persian Gulf has delivered a renewed supply-side shock to the Spanish economy at a time when growth remained relatively strong, unemployment was falling, and the effects of the tariff war were beginning to ease. Energy markets are the main transmission channel: following the sharp rise in oil and gas prices, the pass-through to fuel and food prices is already visible, while futures markets suggest elevated costs could persist well into 2027. Unlike the 2022 shock following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, however, this episode is not being driven by excess demand. Household savings are more limited, and domestic consumption, while resilient, is not overheating, reducing the risk of a sustained inflationary spiral. Under the baseline scenario—in which the Strait of Hormuz gradually reopens before the summer—Funcas projects GDP growth of 2.2% in 2026, with inflation averaging 3.3% this year. Tourism flows redirected toward Spain as a perceived safe destination may partially offset weaker goods exports and softer private consumption. The more serious risk lies in a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Under that scenario, inflation would rise to 4% and GDP growth would slow to 1.8% in 2026, while Europe would move close to recession in the second half of the year. More broadly, the succession of shocks since 2020 has significantly reduced Spain’s fiscal room for manoeuvre: although public debt has stabilised relative to GDP thanks to strong nominal growth, its trajectory would become more difficult to manage in the event of a deeper economic downturn.