Spain’s inflation outlook in the wake of the Persian Gulf ceasefire
Inflation outlook
Fecha: julio 2026
Raymond Torres and María Jesús Fernández
SEFO, Spanish and International Economic & Financial Outlook, V. 15 N.º 4 (July 2026)
The memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran has eased the acute phase of the inflationary shock triggered by the conflict, with oil and gas prices moving towards pre-conflict levels as the Strait of Hormuz reopens to shipping. Even so, normalization will be gradual, as demining operations in the Strait and rebuilding damaged infrastructure could keep commodity prices above their pre-war levels through year-end. Production costs across Spanish industry continue to reflect the shock, feeding through to consumer prices with a lag and offsetting part of the disinflationary effect of lower energy costs. At the same time, the scheduled withdrawal of Spain’s fuel tax relief will add substantially to headline inflation. Beyond these energy-related developments, core inflation has proven more persistent than forecast, reflecting structural pressures that predate the conflict, particularly in services sectors. Altogether, inflation is projected to average 3.3% in 2026, well above the euro area as a whole, leaving monetary policy poorly positioned to address a shock that is becoming increasingly domestic in origin.