AI diffusion in the EU: Why geography still determines technology adoption
AI diffusion
Fecha: mayo 2026
Vicente Salas Fumás
SEFO, Spanish and International Economic & Financial Outlook, V. 15 N.º 3 (May 2026)
The economic impact of artificial intelligence will depend not only on how firms use the technology, but also on how widely adoption spreads across Europe. While AI adoption among EU firms has risen sharply—from 7.6% in 2021 to around 20% in 2025—the pace of diffusion remains highly uneven, ranging from more than 35% in Scandinavia to below 10% in parts of Southern and Eastern Europe. Drawing on EU-ICT-Firm Survey data and diffusion of innovation theory, this study finds that GDP per capita, R&D intensity, and workplace digitalisation are key drivers of firm-level AI adoption, whereas general human capital appears less significant. Yet even after accounting for these factors, a persistent divide remains between the Central-Northern and Southern-Eastern blocs, pointing to deeper differences in institutional quality and management practices. Even as the experience of early adopters facilitates the subsequent diffusion of AI across lagging regions, the continuous evolution of these technologies nevertheless risks turning existing adoption gaps into a more persistent source of economic divergence within the EU.