Assessing the impact of interest rate changes across the Spanish financial sector
Fecha: julio 2024
SEFO, Spanish and International Economic & Financial Outlook, V. 13 N.º 4 (July 2024)
Index
The Spanish economy is expected to grow by 2.5% in 2024 and another solid 1.8% next year, continuing to outpace the European average by a considerable margin. The favourable external competitiveness position is a key factor behind this performance; nonetheless, corporate and housing investment continue to lag pre-pandemic levels, undermining potential output, while the high structural public deficit increases vulnerability to geopolitical and financial risks.
An interpretation of recent indicators claims that policy responses such as the furlough scheme and changes in individuals’ and firms’ behaviours driven by the pandemic, such as increased reliance on electronic payments, have significantly reduced the size of the shadow economy and tax evasion in Spain. However, a more prudent perspective advises deepening the analyses and confirming this structural change with data for an extended period.
The ECB’s recent rate cut contrasts with the Fed’s recent decision to leave its target rate range unchanged, reflecting the divergent attitudes of the main central banks to inflation, with potential implications for the global economy. Going forward, clear central bank communication remains key to mitigating market volatility and strengthening economic stability in an increasingly complex environment.
Two years since the start of the rate hiking cycle, various factors have shaped the trend in margins, with some clearly positive while others less favourable, raising doubts over the sustainability of current margins. A disaggregation of the rate, volume and funding reconfiguration effects helps to explain the incremental growth in the Spanish banks’ net interest margin relative to their European counterparts.
After a strong performance in 2023 under a high interest rate scenario, a softer than expected economic landing, coupled with the containment of inflationary pressures, paving the way for a period of rate cuts, foreshadow a new scenario for the Spanish insurance business in the quarters to come. Nevertheless, under the new scenario, insurance sector conditions and prospects remain largely bright, allowing for a robust outlook and the continued sizeable contribution to banks’ profits.
Public subsidies to foster broadband deployment have led to notable improvements in Spain’s connectivity levels over the last decade, positioning the country among the leaders within the EU. The improvements are most notable in smaller municipalities, highlighting the need to focus future such schemes primarily on these geographic areas.
Institutional changes, such as quotas and evolving social norms, which have promoted gender diversity in boardrooms and at the corporate executive level, are believed to have positively impacted ESG outcomes within firms. Empirical evidence shows that woman directors seem more influential on sustainability issues, while women executives have a stronger impact on gender agendas; nevertheless, preliminary analysis shows that the impact of both groups on these respective areas appears to be limited.