The blow to tourism and the recovery of the Spanish economy
Fecha: julio 2020
Gonzalo García Andrés and Andreu García Baquero, A.F.I.
Turismo, COVID-19, PIB, Balanza de pagos, Digitalización, Movilidad internacional
SEFO, Spanish and International Economic & Financial Outlook, V. 9 N.º 4
COVID-19 resulted in a sudden interruption in global tourism after years of sustained growth. In Spain, the tourism sector accounted for 12.3% of GDP and 12.7% of employment in 2018. Both the European Commission and Spanish government have unveiled plans to support the tourism sector. Taking into account the furlough scheme and business stoppage benefits, the state guarantee lines, and the deferral of taxes, the government estimates it has earmarked 19.54 billion euros to the tourism sector. Nevertheless, some sector representatives have argued that these funds are moderate in size compared with the losses the sector faces in 2020. Specifically, tourism export receipts could fall to around 33.6 billion euros, representing more than a 50% decline from 2019. While a diversion of residents’ expenditure abroad could cushion the pandemic’s impact on the tourism sector’s GDP and on the balance of payments in 2020, the forecast for 2021 is less optimistic. As oil prices rebound and a rise in internal demand leads to an increase in imports, the strong current account dynamics observed since 2013 may weaken..