Episodes of financial instability: "Separating the wheat from the chaff"
Fecha: mayo 2023
Santiago Carbó Valverde and Francisco Rodríguez Fernández
The episodes of financial instability observed in the US and in Europe at Credit Suisse in March and the ensuing international contagion have given pause for thought about the implications of financial normalisation via monetary tightening underway. Although the European banking sector, including the Spanish banks, is proving generally more resilient, the bouts of instability had a pronounced adverse impact on most financial intermediaries. As for the Spanish banks, they continue to bolster their solvency while keeping non-performance low. Although it is hard to draw comparisons and the market environment is very volatile, an analysis of the 12-month returns in the various banking sectors one month on from the fall of SVB and Credit Suisse shows the Spanish banking sector outperforming the European and US averages. The chief challenge is for the US supervisor to convince the markets that it can reform its supervisory mandate quickly enough to prevent similar situations from occurring among its mid-size banks. Meanwhile, most international analysts and institutions are flagging non-bank financial intermediaries, and the shadow banking ecosystem in general, as potential sources of instability worth monitoring.