Investment and productivity in an era of change and uncertainty
Fecha: enero 2026
SEFO, Spanish and International Economic & Financial Outlook, V. 15 N.º 1 (January 2026)
Index
Despite strong growth and unprecedented EU funding, private investment in Spain has failed to recover to pre-pandemic levels, reflecting a persistent gap between the country’s favourable macroeconomic conditions and corporate investment behaviour. Heightened uncertainty and structural impediments have limited the crowding-in effects of public investment, weakening incentives for firms to commit capital despite supportive financing conditions.
Spanish NFCs earned modest economic profits averaging 3% of output between 2000 and 2024, fluctuating from 4–5% before the 2008 crisis to near zero after the pandemic. Investment closely followed the gap between these profits and the user cost of capital, while the sector shifted toward producing internally rather than buying intermediate goods.
Spanish business profitability has recovered to pre-crisis levels in line with the economic cycle, but remains deeply uneven across firms, sectors, and regions. Differences in productivity, firm size, and exposure to competition are some of the factors that explain the disparities in profitability levels.
Artificial intelligence promises major efficiency gains but may also reinforce industrial concentration, labour market polarization, and stock market overvaluation. The current AI-driven market boom raises questions about the growing disconnect between technological expectations and real-economy fundamentals.
Generative AI is reshaping labour markets primarily by reorganizing tasks within occupations rather than eliminating jobs outright, with uneven effects on wages, employment, and access to entry-level roles. These outcomes depend not only on technical capabilities, but also on human agency, institutional choices, and how education systems adapt to shifting expertise thresholds.
IPO markets remain subdued in Europe despite strong secondary-market performance and private equity dynamism. Structural fragmentation, compliance burdens, and limited liquidity windows constrain the pipeline even in the face of reforms that seek to lower execution risk and expand issuer participation.
Six years of rate fluctuation reveal distinct asset-liability management strategies across Spanish banks. Funding costs drove margin gains during tightening, while asset yields regained primacy as rates normalised, with significant divergence between SIs and LSIs.
The rapid expansion of non-bank financial institutions is reshaping the geography of financial risk in Europe and globally. High leverage, liquidity mismatches, and growing interconnections with traditional banks raise the probability that future episodes of stress originate outside the regulated banking perimeter.
European sovereign debt markets are undergoing significant structural shifts that simultaneously reduce demand and increase supply. Yet pricing stability has persisted amid geopolitical uncertainty, reflecting clearer policy signals and more predictable institutional responses.