From Financial Stability to Technological Interdependence: How Power is Reshaping Markets and Institutions
Fecha: Enero 2026
Funcas Intelligence, Enero 2026
Sumario
The Fed extended its easing cycle with a further 25 bp cut in December, while the ECB held rates unchanged and the Bank of England delivered a year-end cut amid faster disinflation. Markets have leaned into a “soft landing together with lower yields” narrative, with U.S. equities at record highs at the end of 2025, a weaker dollar, and renewed appetite for precious metals.
Europe’s proposed delay in implementing the AI Act, while understandable, would not solve the EU’s tech competitiveness problems. By announcing strict rules and then delaying them, the EU would undermine its credibility as a global rule-setter without gaining the scale, capital, or technological autonomy it needs to compete with the United States and China.
Artificial intelligence has not led to widespread unemployment, despite initial fears, but it is reshaping labor markets through task reallocation, skill-biased complementarity, and organizational change. The main economic risk lies in increased wage and employment polarization, making education, reskilling, and adaptive labor-market institutions critical to ensuring an inclusive AI-driven growth path.
Argentina’s latest rescue was less a technocratic bailout than a geopolitical intervention, with Washington using its influence to stabilize an allied government and curb China’s growing foothold in the Americas. The episode exemplifies how multilateral finance is increasingly shaped by great-power rivalry, which poses risks to the IMF’s credibility and signals a broader transformation in the global financial safety net.
The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in 2023 revealed how concentrated deposits, unhedged interest-rate risk, and commercial real estate exposure (CRE) rapidly destabilized these mid-sized institutions in a high-rate environment. While Europe is unlikely to face such episodes of bank failures due to the EU’s stronger regulatory framework, the episode offers a clear warning to policymakers: strong frameworks must be continuously enforced to remain effective.