Trump’s tariff war: Limited impact, diverging effects across partners

Trump’s tariff war: Limited impact, diverging effects across partners

Tariff War

Fecha: julio 2025

Daniel Gros

SEFO, Spanish and International Economic & Financial Outlook, V. 14 N.º5 (September 2025)

Since 2025, U.S. tariff policy under President Trump has generated significant uncertainty, marked by frequent announcements of steep “reciprocal” tariffs followed by partial reversals or diluted deals. Nonetheless, customs revenue data reveal that the average effective tariff rate applied to most trading partners has remained moderate, far below the levels suggested by headline announcements. China stands out as the exception, facing average tariffs close to 40%, with more than four-fifths of its exports subject to duties, notably above the share affected under the Smoot-Hawley Act. By contrast, the EU continues to enjoy relatively favorable access to the U.S. market, with tariff rates substantially below those applied to major Asian competitors. While the aggregate impact on U.S. imports has so far been modest, sharp divergences across countries are reshaping market shares, with China losing ground and the EU maintaining stable exports.

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