The Spanish economy in the face of the trade war
Trade wars
Fecha: mayo 2025
Raymond Torres, María Jesús Fernández and Fernando Gómez Díaz
SEFO, Spanish and International Economic & Financial Outlook, V. 14 N.º3 (May 2025)
The tariff measures announced by Washington on 2 April ushered in a period of heightened uncertainty for the global economy, while simultaneously signaling a potential inflection point for the multilateral trading system. Although the direct impact of the tariffs on the Spanish economy is relatively limited –with an estimated GDP loss of 0.2 to 0.3 percentage points– the burden is disproportionately borne by a small number of sectors. Moreover, the indirect effects are expected to be more pronounced. First, countries heavily affected by the tariffs, such as China, are likely to redirect exports toward alternative markets, potentially increasing competitive pressure on European imports. Second –and most critically– the adverse effects on U.S. economic activity, financial markets, and particularly investment, which is closely tied to trade flows, will play a significant role as the escalation of tariffs and retaliatory measures persists. Under relatively benign assumptions, the Spanish economy is projected to grow by 2.3% in 2025 —0.3 percentage points below pre-conflict estimates— and by 1.6% in 2026, reflecting a 0.4-point downward revision.