Spain’s long-term care system at a crossroads: Demographic pressures and workforce challenges
Long-Term care
Fecha: septiembre 2025
Marina Asensio Vázquez, Cristina García Ciria and Gonzalo López Molina
SEFO, Spanish and International Economic & Financial Outlook, V. 14 N.º5 (September 2025)
Spain’s long-term care system, one of the cornerstones of its welfare state, is under mounting strain from demographic and institutional pressures. Official projections point to the population over 65 increasing by 1.4 million by 2030, raising demand for care benefits by 27%, with more than 2 million people officially recognised as dependent. Home-based care is projected to represent one-third of benefits by 2030, but this requires a doubling of the workforce to 572,200 full-time equivalents. Yet, the sector continues to struggle with low wages (about €10,000 below the national average), high turnover, and unstable temporary contracts which affect one in four workers. Women make up the vast majority of the workforce, and more than half of employees are over 45, compounding the difficulties of recruitment and retention. Without improvements in working conditions and greater investment, Spain risks a shortfall in the care-related workforce needed to ensure dignity and equity for its ageing population. Ultimately, transforming the system will demand stronger political commitment and significant new funding to keep pace with social needs.