Housing market expectations and the risk of a new bubble in Spain
Housing market
Fecha: marzo 2026
Joaquín García Montalvo
SEFO, Spanish and International Economic & Financial Outlook, V. 15 N.º 2 (March 2026)
The sharp increase in house prices in 2024 and 2025 has reignited concerns about the possible emergence of a new housing bubble in Spain. A comparison with the early-2000s cycle shows that, despite strong price growth and high transaction volumes, the current macroeconomic context differs substantially from the period preceding the financial crisis. Credit expansion remains far more contained, and housing construction is well below the levels seen during the previous boom, resulting in a cumulative deficit of nearly 700,000 homes since 2020. However, household expectations about future house prices remain very strong. Evidence from the 2025 Home Price Expectations Survey indicates that buyers overestimate recent price increases by nearly double and anticipate substantial future revaluations. These beliefs play an important role in shaping purchasing decisions and can reinforce demand pressures
in tight housing markets. The coexistence of relatively solid fundamentals with highly optimistic expectations highlights the importance of monitoring the latter as a potential source of market overheating. Incorporating expectations into housing market surveillance may therefore be crucial for anticipating emerging risks and designing effective housing policies.