AI’s Impact on Productivity and Market Dynamics
AI impact
Fecha: enero 2026
Funcas Finance and Digitalization Area
SEFO, Spanish and International Economic & Financial Outlook, V. 15 N.º1 (January 2026)
Artificial intelligence is emerging as a structural force with heterogeneous effects on productivity, employment, and stock market valuation. Estimates suggest a potential global GDP increase of around 14% by 2030, yet productivity gains remain limited by slow diffusion, uneven adoption, and organizational frictions, with most firms still failing to extract measurable returns from AI investment. At the same time, AI tends to reinforce industrial concentration and labour market polarization, as exposure to automation varies sharply across occupations and countries. Financial markets have moved far faster than the real economy: As of 2025, seven companies account for 35% of S&P 500 capitalization, and equity valuations have reached levels close to historic extremes. This divergence reflects strong expectations of future AI-driven profitability, amplified by abundant global liquidity and speculative dynamics. Whether current valuations can be sustained will depend on the timing and magnitude of realized productivity gains, as well as on how AI reshapes competition, capital allocation, and income distribution.