Global economy: Resilience in the midst of the storm

Global economy: Resilience in the midst of the storm

Fecha: marzo 2024

José Ramón Díez Guijarro

Global economy

SEFO, Spanish and International Economic & Financial Outlook, V. 13 N.º 2 (March 2024)

The global economy has demonstrated significant resilience in recent quarters. However, the economic backdrop remains highly uncertain, marked by key risks related to geopolitical tensions, financial stability and fiscal-monetary policy mismatches. The good news is that we have dodged recession fears that loomed in the wake of the sharp increase in energy prices during the summer of 2022 and that inflation has been responding well to central banks’ monetary policy tightening. The bad news is that the outlook for the medium-term is not too optimistic. For example, the IMF is forecasting global growth of 3.1% for the end of the decade – half a point below the medium-term estimate expected before the pandemic and nearly two points below the growth expected before the Global Financial Crisis of 2008, foreshadowing stagnation in potential output at current levels. Hopefully, the normalisation of the business cycle following the recent years of turbulence, and the major structural changes that are already underway (AI, demographic trends, etc.), could open the door to outperformance of these lacklustre forecasts.

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