Spain’s housing and mortgage markets
Fecha: enero 2024
Santiago Carbó Valverde and Francisco Rodríguez Fernández
Housing market
SEFO, Spanish and International Economic & Financial Outlook, V. 13 N.º 1 (January 2024)
Despite an adverse economic climate, house price growth is proving resilient in Spain, fuelled by wholesale and non-resident demand, in addition toretail, residential demand. Indeed, just 38.9% of house sales are completed with mortgages. Although the data do not enable comprehensive identification of the underlying reasons, a number of circumstantial factors may be affecting these metrics, including a higher incidence of mortgage-less purchases in touristic areas and in inland Spain, whether by foreign buyers or as second homes. At any rate, the clearest interpretation of this phenomenon is that overall market volumes are largely being shaped by investment transactions, which are driving up prices. As for mortgage activity, in the aftermath of the pandemic, volumes started to rise again, at year-on-year rates of around 1%. Since December 2022, however, volumes have been contracting, by 3.1% year-on-year in October 2023, the last month for which this information is available. Spain has yet to find a point of equilibrium in the mortgage market between the heady rates of the financial and property bubble and those corresponding to a more normal monetary environment. These dynamics have eroded Spain’s affordability metrics, particularly since the financial crisis and pandemic, when prices recovered swiftly, outpacing wage growth. Factors such as inadequate long-term land policies and growth in demand have exacerbated the problem, increasing inequality between home-owners and those unable to get a foothold on the housing ladder. Focusing resources on enhancing access to affordable, quality housing, fostering an efficient rental market –without interventions that ultimately inflate rents– and increasing housing supply (including more public housing options) could help to curb this trend and facilitate more equitable access to housing.